The State Bank of Pakistan (SBO) is expected to retain interest rates at 11 per cent on Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as analysts push back rate-cut forecasts to late 2026 after the International Monetary Fund warned inflation risks persist and policy must stay “appropriately tight”.

All 12 analysts surveyed expect no cut in the policy meeting scheduled for Monday.

A majority of them see inflation hovering at 6pc–8pc in the coming months before rising again towards the end of fiscal 2026 as base effects fade and food and transport prices stay volatile after flood-related supply disruptions.

Most respondents now believe the SBP will not begin easing until the closing months of FY26, which ends in June 2026, with some analysts pushing forecasts for the first cut into fiscal year 2027, beginning July 2026.

IMF warns against premature easing

The IMF, in a second review released on Thursday, said monetary policy needs to remain “appropriately tight and data-dependent” to keep expectations anchored and noted that the SBP had maintained positive real interest rates on a forward-looking basis.

It said the tight stance had been pivotal in reducing inflation and should be maintained to ensure price stability and support the rebuilding of external buffers.

Analysts said these risks, along with the SBP’s preference for maintaining positive real interest rates, would keep policymakers cautious.

The SBP has held its policy rate at 11pc since September, after cutting it by 1,100 basis points between June 2024 and May 2025 as inflation fell sharply from highs near 40pc in 2023.

Price, external pressures edge up

Inflation has started to accelerate after months of decline, driven by food and transport costs and fading base effects.

Headline inflation eased to 6.1pc in November from 6.2pc in October but remained above the SBP’s 5–7pc target. The IMF expects inflation to temporarily accelerate to 8–10pc this fiscal year before stabilising.

While Pakistan’s macroeconomic backdrop has stabilised somewhat, analysts said the recovery remains sensitive to external pressures.

Premature rate cuts could pressure the rupee even with anticipated IMF inflows, including a $1.2 billion disbursement this week to bolster reserves and support climate-resilience reforms.

Any demand-driven uptick, said Sana Tawfik, head of research at Arif Habib Ltd, “will have an adverse impact on the external front”.

Source link

KARACHI: Sales of cars, pickups, vans and sport utility vehicles surged 52 per cent year-on-year to 15,442 units in November, but declined by 11pc month-on-month.

The yearly growth numbers are fuelled by new entrants alongside falling interest rates, easing inflation, and improving macroeconomic sentiments. The MoM drop was due to seasonality, wherein generally, before the year-end delivery of vehicles is deferred to first month of next year for latest model registration.

According to Topline Research the overall auto sales during 5MFY26 rose by 48pc to 75,042 units YoY from 50,856 units in 5MFY25.

Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HACL) posted highest YoY growth of 135pc YoY and remained flat on MoM basis to 2,609 units in November. Sales during 5MFY26 stood 10,096 units, up by 69pc YoY.

Indus Motor Company (IMC) posted the YoY growth of 75pc to 3,833 units. Sales during 5MFY26 had surged by 68pc to 18,251 units as compared to same period last fiscal year.

Hyundai Nishat reported YoY growth of 38pc in November to 1,001 units, but fell by 8pc MoM, while 5MFY26 sales rose by 71pc 5,699 units.

Sazgar Engineering reported sales of 1,109 units, up 90pc YoY but down 20pc MoM, while 5MFY26 sales rose by 44pc to 6,045 units.

Pak Suzuki saw the surge of 23pc YoY reaching 6,615 units in November but witnessed an 11pc fall MoM. Cumulative sales went up by 31pc to 33,849 in 5MFY26 from 25,812 units in same period last year.

Sales of two- and three-wheelers increased by 38pc YoY and remained flattish MoM, totalling 165,753 units in November. Atlas Honda Ltd witnessed record monthly sales yet again at 140,382 units in November, while 5MFY26 sales surged 33pc to 647,887 units.

Tractors’ sales rose by 7pc YoY and 27pc MoM to 3,663 units in November due to government tractor scheme and improving farm economics, but remained flat by 8pc in 5MFY26 to 9,530 units. Truck and bus sales surged 62pc YoY but down 31pc MoM to 530 units in November, while sales rose by 97pc in 5MFY26 to 3,159 units.

Published in Dawn, December 12th, 2025

Source link

ISLAMABAD: At a time when Pakistan’s exports have recorded negative growth for four consecutive months, a nationwide cargo transporter’s strike has entered its fifth day and exporters fear that this prolonged strike will obstruct the movement of goods to ports for shipment.

The strike, announced for an indefinite period, is in response to the Punjab and Sindh governments’ decision to ban older cargo trucks and trailers from operating in their provinces. The goods transporter’s nationwide strike has severely disrupted the entire supply chains across the country.

Exporters have appealed to the Punjab government for a relaxation in the enforcement of the new transport regulations. However, Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz, in a post on her official X account, reaffirmed that the law would be strictly implemented. Following this firm stance, Punjab’s traffic police have reportedly begun arresting drivers operating ageing cargo vehicles.

The standoff between the provincial governments and cargo transporters has escalated into a nationwide logistics crisis. For the past five days, thousands of inbound and outbound consignments have remained stranded across the country, severely disrupting trade and supply chains.

Urge Punjab govt to relax enforcement of new transport regulations

Pakistan’s average monthly textile exports stand at $1.5 billion, translating to roughly $50 million per day. With the cargo strike now in its fifth day, the textile sector alone could have lost around $250 million in export revenue, Patron-in-Chief, Pakistan Textile Exporters Association Khurram Mukhtar told Dawn.

However, he said that the disruption to the broader supply chain — impacting raw material movement, industrial production, and port operations — suggested that the overall economic losses were significantly higher, affecting multiple sectors nationwide.

It is worth mentioning that the nationwide transporters’ has brought Pakistan’s export manufacturing sector to a halt. The complete breakdown of inbound and outbound logistics has severely disrupted production cycles, delayed shipments, and paralysed the entire supply chain of export-oriented industries.

Mr Mukhtar said thousands of export containers remained stranded across the country, resulting in massive demurrage charges, missed vessel sailings, production halts, and a rapidly increasing risk of international order cancellations. “This situation is causing irreparable damage to Pakistan’s reputation as a reliable sourcing destination and poses a direct threat to our already fragile economic stability,” he added.

The chairman said that the export sector, already facing unprecedented challenges in the form of high energy tariffs, liquidity constraints due to delayed refunds, and mounting cost pressures, cannot withstand this paralysis any longer. Immediate government intervention is imperative to restore transport operations and prevent further deterioration of industrial activity, he added.

“I strongly urge the government and all concerned authorities to take urgent notice and engage all stakeholders to find an immediate and lasting resolution to this crisis, he said, adding that every passing hour was adding to the financial losses of exporters and undermining the livelihoods of millions dependent on the export value chain.

A senior customs officer at the Karachi exports collectorate told Dawn that the majority of export containers were being directly loaded onto ships at the Karachi Port and Port Qasim without delay. He noted that around 87 percent of export consignments had been cleared through the green channel, meaning that once the goods declarations (GDs) were filed, shipments moved directly to the vessels.

“There is no issue on the customs side,” he said, downplaying concerns over delays caused by the ongoing cargo transport strike.

All Pakistan Textile Mills Association Chairman Kamran Arshad also wrote a letter to Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz to look into the challenges being faced by the industry in general and exporters in particular due to the strike since December 8, 2025.

“This strike has critically impacted import and export operations, which are the backbone of the country’s economy,” he said, adding that due to the strike, hundreds of cargo vehicles were stranded across Punjab awaiting road clearance.

He further said that it was causing abnormal delays in goods movement, resulting in heavy demurrage, detention charges, missing scheduled vessels, and production shutdowns due to the non-availability of raw materials and the inability to dispatch finished goods.

The continued disruption poses a serious risk of order cancellation of export orders by international buyers, which would have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan’s foreign exchange earnings, the chairman further said.

He urged the CM to intervene for an immediate resolution of the strike and ensure restoration of unhindered goods movement throughout the province to facilitate stable and predictable logistic conditions to support smooth flow of export goods.

Published in Dawn, December 12th, 2025

Source link