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Oil falls on possible US-Iran de-escalation, firm dollar

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Oil prices fell on Tuesday, easing for a second day, as market participants weighed the possibility of a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, while a firmer dollar placed greater downside pressure on prices.

Brent crude futures fell 34 cents, or 0.5 per cent, to $65.96 per barrel by 06:23 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.81 a barrel, down 32 cents, or 0.5pc.

Oil prices fell more than 4pc on Monday after US President Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, signaling a de-escalation of tensions with the Opec member.

Iran and the US are expected to resume nuclear talks on Friday in Turkey, officials from both sides told Reuters on Monday, and Trump warned that with big US warships heading to Iran, bad things could happen if a deal was not reached.

Talks with the US should be pursued to secure Iran’s national interests as long as “threats and unreasonable expectations” are avoided, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian posted on X on Tuesday.

“The volatile price actions of oil seen in the last four weeks have been driven by the geopolitical risk premium factor that is linked to the current US administration’s expansionary foreign policy, especially the ‘on-off’ threats towards Iran,” said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

Weighing on prices further, the US dollar index hovered near its highest in more than a week. A stronger greenback hurts demand for dollar-denominated crude from foreign buyers.

“The continued recovery in the US dollar yesterday, following President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, also exerted downward pressure on oil prices,” ING analysts said in a note.

On the trade front, Trump on Monday unveiled a deal with India that slashes US tariffs on Indian goods to 18pc from 50pc in exchange for India halting Russian oil purchases and lowering trade barriers.

“Overnight, the US and India agreed on a trade deal … if we do see this happen, it will only lead to a further increase in the amount of Russian oil floating at sea,” the ING analysts said.

Trump announced the deal on social media following a call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, noting that India had agreed to buy oil from the US and possibly Venezuela.

Some analysts said they were expecting volatile price movements this month.

“Looking ahead into February, prices are likely to remain choppy and range-bound … (they) are expected to stay highly reactive to headlines and macro cues rather than a decisive trend, with risk skewed to the downside,” said Phillip Nova’s senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.





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KSE-100 up 1,237.11 points during early intraday trading

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Pakistan’s benchmark index, KSE-100, was trading marginally higher during early intraday trading at 11:20am on Wednesday, up 1,237.11 points from its previous close of 183,390.66 points on Tuesday.

Market participation remained steady with trading volumes of 144,531,284 at a value of 9,557,403,312, contributing to the increase of 0.68 per cent from its previous close.

The top active stocks so far have been led by K-Electric Limited with a volume of 53,256,821, gaining 1.97pc to Rs8.80, followed closely by Cnergyico PK Limited at a volume of 50,242,277, rising 0.14pc to Rs8.39, and Pak Qatar General Takaful Limited with a volume of 14,013,540, increasing 8.90pc to Rs16.77.

The top advancers so far have been Kohinoor Power Company Limited, rising 10.01pc to Rs33.95, Javedan Corporation (Pref), gaining 10.01pc to Rs91.80, and Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited, increasing 10pc to Rs36.29.

The top decliners were led by East West Insurance Company Limited, falling 9.37pc to Rs51, followed by Nazir Cotton Mills Limited, declining 9.10pc to Rs17.27, and Tariq Corporation Limited falling 8.76pc to Rs19.79.



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Gold, silver climb as US yields fall on softer retail sales

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Gold and silver prices rose on Wednesday as US Treasury bond yields fell after data showed December retail sales growth stalled, signalling a softening economy ahead of key jobs data.

Lower US yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets such as gold, and they often accompany macroeconomic shifts, like expectations of slower growth or looser policy, that tend to support precious metals.

Spot gold was 0.7 per cent higher at $5,057.23 per ounce by 04:23 GMT.

US gold futures for April delivery gained 1pc to $5,081.40 per ounce.

Spot silver was up 2.3pc at $82.56/oz, after falling more than 3pc in the previous session.

“Over the last couple of weeks, (precious metals) became very dislocated from fundamentals, so it pretty much decoupled from interest rate policy. Yields being lower are obviously supportive of gold today,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com.

US yields fell on Tuesday after a raft of data suggested the economy may be softening, giving the US Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates.

US retail sales were unchanged in December as households scaled back spending on motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, potentially setting consumer spending and the economy on a slower growth path.

“After soft retail sales numbers, there’s the expectation that perhaps, further and deeper rate cuts may be needed more imminently than previously thought,” Rodda added.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack, however, said on Tuesday that the US central bank faces no urgency to change the setting of interest rates this year amid a “cautiously optimistic” outlook for economic activity.

Investors expect at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026, with the first one expected in June. Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Investors await the non-farm payrolls report for January, due later in the day, and inflation data on Friday for more cues on the Fed’s monetary policy path.

Spot platinum rose 2.1pc to $2,131.60 per ounce, while palladium added 2pc to $1,741.78.



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Auto sales soar to 43-month high

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KARACHI: Sales of cars, pickups, vans and sport utility vehicles clocked in at 23,055 units in January, marking a 43-month high, reflecting a 36 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 74pc month-on-month (MoM) increase.

Cumulative sales rose 43pc to 111,377 units in 7MFY26, up from 77,686 units in 7MFY25. Myesha Sohail of Topline Securi­ties said the sharp MoM surge was largely driven by new-year registrations, as customers typically delay deliveries to secure January registrations for better resale value.

The strong YoY growth was supported by new market entrants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving macroeconomic sentiment, she said.

Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SEWL) reported all-time high sales of 2,004 units in January, up 72pc MoM. SEWL sales in 7MFY26 were 9,214, up by 49pc YoY.

Tractor demand shrinks, truck and bus sales surge to record high

Indus Motor Company (IMC) and Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR) recorded 43-month high sales in January, she added.

HACL posted growth of 64pc YoY and 86pc MoM to 3,620 units in January. Honda City and Civic models sales rose 69pc YoY and 93pc MoM to 3,364 units, which were a 43-month high. BRV and HRV models surged by 14pc YoY and 25pc MoM to 256 units in January. HACL sold 15,659 units in 7MFY26, up by 68pc YoY.

IMC posted a 52pc YoY and 119pc MoM growth to 5,060 units. Corolla, Yaris and Cross sales together went up 90pc YoY and 93pc MoM to 4,078 units. Meanwhile, Fortuner and IMVs fell 17pc YoY but rose to 982 units in January from 196 units in December 2025. Total IMC sales during 7MFY26 were 25,623, showing a growth of 61pc YoY.

In 2 and 3-wheelers, sales increased by 31pc YoY and 13pc MoM to 181,790 units in January, marking an all-time high. This took cumulative 7MFY26 sales to 1.1m units, up 32pc YoY.

Atlas Honda Ltd (AHL), the maker of the popular CD70 bike, yet again recorded all-time high monthly sales of 157,059 units in January.

Tractor sales posted a decline of 9pc YoY and 26pc MoM to 2,505 units in January, while total sales (Fiat and Millat) in 7MFY26 fell by 23pc to 15,434 units YoY.

Truck and bus sales surged by 77pc YoY and three times MoM to 1,101 units in January, to an all-time high. During 7MFY26, total sales surged by 92pc to 4,633 units YoY.

Myesha Sohail expects positive momentum in auto sales to continue in 2026, supported by lower interest rates and new hybrid and plug-in hybrid models.

Published in Dawn, February 11th, 2026



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