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IMF team due on 26th for review, budget talks

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ISLAMABAD: An Inte­r­national Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Iva Petrova is due to visit Pakistan on Feb 26 to review implementation of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the $1.1bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), officials said.

During the almost two-week visit ending March 11, the engagements would be of greater significance as both sides would also discuss budget proposals based on performance this year and set broad contours of the upcoming budget (for the fiscal year 2026-27), particularly those relating to provincial finances.

The programme’s performance as of end-Dece­mber 2025 — the period for review — has mostly been up to the mark, alb­eit with a revenue shortfall, which authorities bel­i­eve could be reduced following a recent super tax ruling by the Federal Cons­t­ituti­onal Court that went in the government’s favour.

The power sector would also remain under added scrutiny given volatile policymaking in the recent months, including those relating to the industrial sector, residential fixed cha­rges and so on, altho­ugh circular debt numbers are within the target range.

On the positive side, Pak­istan has met almost all quantitative performa­nce criteria for end-Dece­mber 2025. However, it is lagging behind in indicative targets and structural benchmarks, which could affect future programme implementation.

Given the biannual reviews of the $7bn EFF and the $1.1bn RSF, the two sides will have to agree on past performance as well as forward-looking implementation plans.

Upon the successful completion of the review, Pakistan will be eligible for the disbursement of about $1bn (760 million Special Drawing Rights) under the EFF and another $200m under the RSF by the end of April.

Meanwhile, Topline Research said it expected Pakistan to meet nearly all quantitative performance criteria (QPCs).

“As per our calculation, Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all seven QPCs; however, data for one indicator is not known yet,” it said, referring to the floor on targeted cash transfers, which it said was missed in the previous review by Rs1bn.

However, it perhaps missed the point that the slippage was only technical in nature, as lower spending was not related to beneficiaries but to lower administrative expenses.

Topline also observed that net international reserves were likely to remain below at around $6.7bn against the $7bn benchmark for September 2025 and below $6bn for December 2025 against the $6.5bn benchmark.

“The net domestic assets (NDA) of the SBP are likely to remain in the range of Rs12.5-13.5tr vs the ceiling target of Rs14.9-15.1tr for September and December 2025,” it said.

It said that as per the State Bank, foreign currency swaps stood at $2.2bn for September 2025 and $1.86bn for December 2025, compared to ceiling targets of $2.25bn and $2bn, respectively. It also estimated primary surplus figures of Rs3.5tr and Rs4.1tr for September and December compared to targets of Rs460bn and Rs3.2tr.

“The government guarantees and floor on cash transfer spending are also likely to be met as per our channel checks. Similarly, the new tax return target is also expected to be achieved,” Topline said.

It added that the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) indicative criteria were missed by Rs336bn but hoped that a portion of this missed target could be collected through the super tax verdict, though the collection would still remain below the annual target.

Published in Dawn, February 18th, 2026



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T-bill yields rise for second straight auction

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KARACHI: Treasury bill cut-off yields rose for a second consecutive auction on Wednesday, lifting returns further into double digits and taking the 12-month paper above the policy rate of 10.5 per cent.

In the previous auction, held after the monetary policy statement on Jan 26, T-bill yields rose by up to 39 basis points, moving some tenors from single digits into double digits.

Market participants said the latest outcome further dampened expectations of a near-term policy rate cut and suggested the benchmark rate could remain unchanged for an extended period.

Data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showed the largest increase was recorded on the 12-month tenor, where the cut-off yield rose by 20 basis points to 10.60pc.

Govt borrows Rs677bn; return on 12-month paper exceeds policy rate

In the Feb 6 auction, the 12-month yield had increased by 39 basis points, taking the cumulative rise over the two auctions to almost 60 basis points and placing the one-year paper above the policy rate.

By contrast, the one-month cut-off yield fell by four basis points to 10.15pc, while the three-month and six-month yields rose by nine and 12 basis points to 10.28pc and 10.44pc, respectively.

Total bids at the auction stood at Rs1.265 trillion. The government accepted Rs319.8 billion through auction and Rs357.5bn in non-competitive bids, taking total borrowing to Rs677.3bn.

Analysts said higher T-bill yields would add to the government’s debt-servicing burden. Int­erest payments in the current fiscal year are projected at around Rs8tr, the single largest component of federal expenditure.

Financial sector experts said the higher yields could appeal to foreign investors, who invested $176m in January, but noted that the overall situation remained weak as 68pc of investment had returned during the first seven months (July-January) of the ongoing fiscal year.

Some analysts had expected a policy rate cut of up to 100 basis points ahead of the previous auction, but the SBP left the rate unchanged. The two successive increases in T-bill cut-off yields have strengthened market expectations that the policy rate may remain unchanged through the current fiscal year.

Published in Dawn, February 19th, 2026



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PTA says 5G spectrum auction to be held on March 10

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ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) said on Wednesday that 5G spectrum auction would be held on March 10 and no changes were likely to be made in the schedule, saying that the sale was likely to fetch between $300-$700 million.

The authority is offering 597 megahertz (MHz) in several bands in the upcoming auction and three existing telecom operators have been mandated to obtain a minimum of 100 MHz in the auction process.

“With the prescribed rate, even if 300 MHz is obtained by the telecommunication operators without any competitive bidding, the government will get $300 million,” PTA Director General Licensing retired brigadier Aamir Shahzad told a media briefing.

“And if all the 597 MHz is sold at auction at a slightly competitive rate, $700 million will be available for the government, but this scenario is less likely to happen,” he added.

Shahzad said that the auction would be conducted using a multi-round electronic clock auction format, with the main allocation stage starting on March 10. He said the 2600 MHz and 3500 MHz bands would be offered during the first round.

He added that after the auction process, the rollout of 5G services would take between three and six months as certain infrastructure was needed for the fresh spectrum.

Meanwhile, Chairman PTA Hafeezur Rehman said that the auction would lead to improved quality of service and data speed.

“Around 50 million new users have been added in the system during the last five years, but only 10MHz was increased in the 2021 spectrum auction,” PTA Chairman said.

“Improved data service and enhanced coverage will also increase average revenue per user (ARPU) for telecommunication operators,” he said.

The ARPU is a key performance indicator that measures the average revenue generated by a company from each consumer within a specific timeframe, monthly or annually.

“We started with $0.7 and now the ARPU has reached $1.3. Therefore, it is likely to increase as more data is consumed by the subscribers,” Rehman said.

“The authority expects mobile broadband speeds to improve by around 25 per cent following the auction,” he said.

He said that the government had offered many incentives to telecom companies in the new spectrum auction, but obligations to improve the quality of service as well as coverage area had been increased.

“This will help the country to embrace further upgradations like 6G and not like 5G, where we have been delayed,” the PTA Chairman said.

He added the government had also eliminated the right-of-way fee that used to be around Rs36,000 per kilometre annually; this, he said, would encourage fiberisation projects.

The chairman also said that telecom operators had already placed orders for 5G equipment, while local manufacturing of 5G-enabled smartphones had commenced, with 500,000 to 600,000 units produced so far.

He said the other measures being taken to facilitate the faster rollout of services after the auction were options for spectrum sharing, relaxation of certain regulatory terms and incentives for network expansion.

“Operators have been given one year to make the necessary capital investments without upfront spectrum payments, allowing them to focus on improving service quality,” Rehman added.

However, the operators will have to expand 5G coverage to additional cities apart from Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar and Quetta, while fiber-to-the-site ratios will increase from 20 per cent to 35pc by 2035.

Besides, the minimum download speeds for 4G service have been increased from four megabytes per second (Mbps) to 20Mbps in 2026–27 and to 50Mbps by 2030–35.

For 5G, minimum download speeds will rise from 50Mbps initially to 100Mbps by 2030–35, with latency targets reduced to 35 milliseconds. Upload speeds are benchmarked at 20pc of download speeds across both technologies.



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Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg to face questioning at youth addiction trial in US court

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Meta Platforms CEO and billionaire Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg is set to be questioned for the first time in a US court on Wednesday about Instagram’s effect on the mental health of young users, as a landmark trial over youth social media addiction continues.

While Zuckerberg has previously testified on the subject before Congress, the stakes are higher at the jury trial in Los Angeles, California.

Meta may have to pay damages if it loses the case, and the verdict could erode Big Tech’s longstanding legal defence against claims of user harm.

The lawsuit and others like it are part of a global backlash against social media platforms over children’s mental health.

Australia and Spain have prohibited access to social media platforms for users under age 16, and other countries are considering similar curbs.

In the US, Florida has prohibited companies from allowing users under age 14. Tech industry trade groups are challenging the law in court.

The case involves a California woman who started using Meta’s Instagram and Google’s YouTube as a child.

She alleges the companies sought to profit by hooking kids on their services despite knowing social media could harm their mental health. She alleges the apps fueled her depression and suicidal thoughts and is seeking to hold the companies liable.

Meta and Google have denied the allegations and pointed to their work to add features that keep users safe. Meta has often pointed to a National Academies of Sciences finding that research does not show social media changes kids’ mental health.

The lawsuit serves as a test case for similar claims in a larger group of cases against Meta, Alphabet’s Google, Snap and TikTok. Families, school districts and states have filed thousands of lawsuits in the US accusing the companies of fueling a youth mental health crisis.

Zuckerberg is expected to be questioned on Meta’s internal studies and discussions of how Instagram use affects younger users.

Adam Mosseri, head of Instagram, testified last week that he was unaware of a recent Meta study showing no link between parental supervision and teens’ attentiveness over their own social media use.

Teens with difficult life circumstances more often said they used Instagram habitually or unintentionally, according to the document shown at trial.

Meta’s lawyer told jurors at the trial that the woman’s health records show her issues stem from a troubled childhood, and that social media was a creative outlet for her.



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