Business
How US-Iran tensions could shape world markets – Business
The United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Saturday, targeting its leadership and plunging the Middle East into a new conflict that President Donald Trump said would end a security threat and give Iranians a chance to topple their rulers.
The strikes put nearby oil-producing Gulf Arab countries on edge as fears of escalation grew, and Tehran responded by launching missiles towards Israel.
Here’s how the conflict could play out across world markets.
Oil spike
Oil is the main barometer of Middle East tension.
Iran is a major producer and lies opposite the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula across the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 per cent of global oil supply passes. Conflict could limit oil entering the global market and push up prices.
Brent crude traded on Friday around $73 a barrel, already up by a fifth this year.
Some oil majors and top trading houses suspended crude oil and fuel shipments via the Strait of Hormuz because of the attacks, four trading sources said on Saturday.
William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said that even if the conflict was contained, Brent might rise to about $80, which was the peak during the 12-day war in Iran last June.
A prolonged conflict affecting supply could cause oil prices to jump to around $100, potentially adding 0.6-0.7 percentage points to global inflation, he said in a note.
Wild swings, everywhere
The conflict is likely to exacerbate volatility across global markets, which have already swung wildly this year owing to Trump’s tariffs and a sharp tech selloff.
The VIX volatility index has risen by a third this year, and implied US bond volatility is up 15 per cent.
Currency markets are unlikely to be immune, analysts say.
The dollar index fell by around 1pc during the June war, CBA notes. But that fall was short-lived and unwound after three or four days.
“In current circumstances, the size of the fall will depend on how large and how long-lasting the conflict is expected to be,” CBA analysts said in a note a week ago.
“If the conflict was long-lasting and disrupted oil supplies, we expect the US dollar would lift against most currencies except the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The US is a net energy exporter and so benefits from higher oil and gas prices that would result from a disrupted oil supply.”
Israel’s shekel will almost certainly be another mover — Iran quickly retaliated against Israel on Saturday.
It dropped 5pc at the start of the June war and also reacted after Israel struck Iran’s Damascus consulate in April 2024 and when Iran launched missiles at Israel that October.
All episodes were short-lived and followed by quick shekel rebounds. However, JPMorgan said it could be different this time if the conflict and a rise in market risk premia proved more persistent.
“This would especially be the case if confrontation with Iran also triggers more intensive operations against Iran’s proxies,” the Wall Street bank said.
Safe havens do their thing
The Swiss franc, widely regarded as a safe haven in times of turmoil, is expected to face further upward pressure, creating a headache for the Swiss National Bank. It is up 3pc this year against the US dollar.
Investors could also make another dash for gold, which has had a record run and is up 22pc so far in 2026, and into silver, which has also been on a roll.
The conflict could also add to demand for US Treasuries, whose yields have been falling in the past few weeks.
The outlier has been Bitcoin, no longer seen as a haven. It fell 2pc on Saturday and has shed more than a quarter of its value in two months.
Watch Middle East markets
Trading in bourses in the Middle East on Sunday, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, will provide an initial indicator of investor sentiment. While these markets are highly correlated to oil prices, an escalating conflict could ripple through the economies.
“I suspect markets will be down if these hostilities continue through the day,” said Ryan Lemand, chief executive officer and co-founder of Neovision Wealth Management. Depending on the scale of the conflict, Gulf equities could drop by 3-5pc, he said.
Saudi Arabia’s benchmark stock index dropped 1.3pc in five days through Thursday, its second consecutive week of declines. Dubai’s main market, which reopens on Monday, fell in the last two weeks.
Airline and defence stocks
Global airlines cancelled flights across the Middle East on Saturday, and their stocks could be under pressure if the conflict spreads and forces more airspace closures.
European weapons makers, up 10pc this year, could see more demand.
Business
UAE halts stock markets for two days after Iran strikes – Business
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has ordered its stock markets closed on Monday and Tuesday as the country reels from Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strikes, in a sign of the growing economic disruption sweeping the Gulf.
Iran carried out the strikes in Gulf countries that have US bases and assets after joint attacks on the Islamic republic by Israel and America.
The UAE Capital Markets Authority said the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market would remain shut on March 2 and March 3, citing its supervisory and regulatory role over the country’s capital markets.
“The Authority will continue to monitor developments in the region and assess the situation on an ongoing basis, taking any further measures as necessary,” it said in a statement.
The UAE’s two exchanges are home to some of the region’s most valuable listed companies.
The closure keeps billions of dollars in listed assets in suspension as investors await clarity on the scale of damage from Saturday and Sunday’s strikes, which hit airports, ports and residential areas across the UAE and broader Gulf region.
Gulf markets that did open on Sunday saw sharp declines. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index fell more than four per cent at the open, Oman dropped 3pc and Egypt’s main index shed 5.44pc, while Kuwait suspended trading entirely.
All parties were advised to follow official UAE Capital Markets Authority, ADX and DFM channels for updates on the resumption of trading.
Business
Oil jumps 10pc on Iran conflict and could spike to $100 a barrel, analysts say – World
Brent crude jumped 10 per cent to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after US and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war.
The global oil benchmark has rallied this year and reached $73 a barrel on Friday for its highest since July, buoyed by growing concern over the potential attacks that arrived a day later. Futures trading is closed over the weekend.
“While the military attacks are themselves supportive for oil prices, the key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS.
Most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said, after Tehran warned ships against moving through the waterway. More than 20pc of global oil is moved through the Strait of Hormuz.
Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could lead to oil prices jumping to more than $100 a barrel, said RBC analyst Helima Croft. Rabobank analysts are slightly less bullish, seeing prices holding above $90 a barrel in the near term.
The OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed on Sunday to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April, a modest increase representing less than 0.2pc of global demand.
While some alternate infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the net impact from its closure would be a loss of 8million to 10m bpd of crude oil supply even after diverting some flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and Abu Dhabi’s pipeline, said Rystad Energy economist Jorge Leon.
Rystad expects prices to rise by $20 to about $92 a barrel when trade opens.
The Iran crisis also prompted Asian governments and refiners to assess oil stockpiles and alternative shipping routes and supplies. Kpler analysts said in a webinar on Sunday that India might turn to Russian oil to make up for potential Middle East supply loss.
Business
Middle East war to hamper Pakistan’s external trade – Business
KARACHI: The war in the Middle East will severely hamper Pakistan’s trade with the region, as both exports and crucial imports have come to a halt following the cancellation of flights and suspension of shipping operations.
Hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis are stranded in the Middle East as all flights to and from the region were suspended in the wake of war erupted after attacks on Iran by Israel and the US.
Pakistanis have expressed concern over the consequences of the war for the country and for the millions Pakistani workers living in the Middle East. An immediate issue is the large number of Pakistanis currently in Saudi Arabia to perform Umrah.
The business community is in shock, as their exports to the Middle East will remain suspended until the conflict subsides. The UAE is the second-largest trading partner of Pakistan, while the country imports most of its oil from the Middle East. Pakistan also imports liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar.
Remittances likely to decline during Ramazan
Iran had earlier warned that in the event of war, the Strait of Hormuz would be closed, which means oil supply from the Middle East will come to a halt. Such a move would also hurt oil-producing countries in the region as their economies largely depend on oil revenues.
Pakistan depends heavily on remittances sent by overseas Pakistanis to support its foreign exchange reserves, which reached $40 billion in FY25.
“The immediate impact of this war is reflected in the lower demand for foreign currencies like Saudi riyal, UAE dirham and US dollar,” said Malik Bostan, chairman of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan. He added that these currencies have lost value against the Pakistani rupee, but the actual situation will become clearer on Monday, the first working day after the outbreak of war in the region as banks’ currency markets remain closed on Saturday.
Currency market experts also anticipated that inflows of remittances may decline, particularly during the month of Ramazan.
“There is no obstacle to remittances, but thousands of Pakistanis usually return home for Eid and bring foreign currencies, which are later sold in the open market. This inflow of millions of dollars (in terms of value) will see a decline,” said Mr Bostan.
Millions of Pakistanis working in the Middle East may feel insecure due to the war, while those in Saudi Arabia for Umrah will require arrangements to return home.
Trade with UAE, KSA
Trade with the UAE in FY25 was $10.1bn, with Pakistan’s exports to the country stood at $2.1bn, leaving the balance of trade clearly in favour of the UAE.
Pakistan’s exports to Saudi Arabia in FY25 stood at $700m. Data for calendar year 2024 showed that imports from Saudi Arabia was $4.5bn.
Pakistan’s export is already facing a stagnant situation despite the government’s ambitious plan to boost exports to $60bn within three years, one year of which has already passed.
The war in the region has not only destroyed this dream, but is also likely to significantly hurt overall export performance.
Published in Dawn, March 1st, 2026
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