Business
Afghan border closure chokes crucial exports
KARACHI: Following the closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border on Oct 11 amid rising tensions between the two countries, stakeholders have offered mixed views on its impact on trade, while analysts warn of more pressure on Pakistan’s exports if the deadlock persists.
At the same time, some analysts believe the closure may slow the influx of smuggled goods into Pakistan from Afghan territory.
Cement and coal
A cement manufacturer said imports of Afghan coal and cement exports to Afghanistan have come to a standstill. As a result, the price of Darra (local coal) has risen to Rs42,000-45,000 per tonne from Rs30,000-32,000, while Afghan coal — previously priced at Rs30,000-38,000 per tonne — is no longer available.
With cement makers in the southern zone already using imported coal, mills in the northern region, which had been relying heavily on Afghan coal, are now shifting to imports from South Africa, as well as Indonesia and Mozambique.
Coal, used as an alternative fuel for firing the kiln, is consumed in large quantities by the cement sector, which requires around four million tonnes a year.
Cement, pharma, fruit exporters count losses amid prolonged deadlock
The manufacturer ruled out using Iran as an alternative route for exporting cement or importing coal, citing the absence of banking channels between Pakistan and Iran and the impracticality of moving four million tonnes of coal through that route, while smuggling was also not possible on such a huge volume.
He said Afghanistan accounts for about seven per cent of Pakistan’s total cement exports.
According to Topline Securities, D.G. Khan Cement told investors in a corporate briefing that imported coal currently costs around $90-100 per tonne and that the company will continue to rely largely on imported coal, as Afghan coal is not being used due to the border situation.
Some cement makers have started importing RB2, a mid-range coal grade that balances price and quality.
Insight Research said the cement sector is among the most exposed to the border disruption because of its reliance on exports to Afghanistan and Afghan coal. From a sales perspective, Cherat Cement, Fauji Cement and Maple Leaf Cement are expected to be hit the hardest, with exports to Afghanistan contributing around 9.8pc, 5.8pc and 3.1pc of their revenues, respectively.
Medicines
Dr Kaiser Waheed, former chairman of the Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (PPMA), said that out of Pakistan’s total exports of $1.8 billion to Afghanistan, including all merchandise, medicines account for about $187 million.
“The volume of medicine exports through informal channels is three times higher than the volume shipped through legal channels,” he claimed, adding that stakeholders in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were the main beneficiaries as Afghan buyers travel to the province to procure and carry back goods.
Exporters are concerned over the build-up of consignments at their manufacturing units waiting for the border to reopen. If the closure persists, one option would be to divert medicines to local markets, but many of the products exported to Afghanistan are not used in Pakistan, he said.
According to Topline Securities, The Searle Pakistan said in a corporate briefing that the projected impact of a full-year border closure on its exports to Afghanistan would be around Rs2bn.
Insight Research noted that while both countries have experienced multiple border closures in recent years, the situation has escalated after Afghanistan announced a three-month ban on medicine imports from Pakistan.
It said exports to Afghanistan by some five listed pharmaceutical companies contribute between 1.9pc and 8.1pc of their revenues, with overall exposure for certain firms ranging from one per cent to as high as 45pc.
Former president of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI) Qazi Zahid Hussain said about 700 to 750 loaded containers are stranded at Chaman and 350 to 400 at Torkham, awaiting clearance into Afghanistan after the two-way trade closure.
He added that more than 9,000 containers carrying various items are stuck at different Pakistani ports waiting to be cleared for onward shipment to Afghanistan, including over 500 containers destined for Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, such as Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Vegetables and fruits
Waheed Ahmed, patron-in-chief of the All Pakistan Fruits and Vegetables Exporters, Importers and Merchants Association (PFVA), said Pakistan exports bananas, potatoes, kinnow and mangoes during the season to Afghanistan, while also using Afghan routes to reach CIS markets.
He said Pakistan’s exports of fruits and vegetables to Afghanistan and CIS countries amount to around $150m annually. At the same time, Pakistan imports tomatoes, onions, pomegranates, grapes and apricots from Afghanistan.
Following the halt in two-way trade, he said stakeholders were forced either to divert containers of perishable goods to domestic markets at distressed prices or destroy them when they spoiled.
Efforts are under way to send shipments to Afghanistan via Iran, and a meeting was held at the Ministry of National Food Security and Research last week to explore options, he said.
Exporters, however, require financial instruments from commercial banks if they are to use the Iran route, but there is currently a ban on issuing such instruments, he added.
PAJCCI president Junaid Makda, referring to projected kinnow exports, said the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Nov 19 declined a request to exempt the financial instrument requirement for exports to Iran and CIS countries via Iran.
Mr Makda described the overall situation as alarming, noting that many truck drivers have been stranded in Afghanistan for weeks and some vehicles have come under attack. The drivers, he said, face food shortages, cash constraints and worsening living conditions.
Karachi Welfare Fruits Association President Abdul Qadeem Agha said pomegranates are now arriving mainly from Iran instead of Afghanistan, with wholesale prices rising to Rs4,000-4,500 per 10kg carton from Rs2,000-2,500 before the suspension of Pak-Afghan trade. Supplies from Quetta and parts of Balochistan have dried up, he added.
He said Iranian red apples and grapes are also finding their way into the market, with wholesale prices at Rs2,000-3,000 per 10kg carton. Around 15-20 containers of various Iranian fruits are currently arriving daily at the wholesale market, he added.
Ghee, cooking oil, flour
Pakistan Vanaspati Manufacturers Association (PVMA) Chairman Sheikh Umer Rehan said that before the suspension of two-way trade, some exporters were sending 6,000-8,000 tonnes of ghee per month to Afghanistan through formal channels, while exports of cooking oil were negligible.
Aamir Abdullah, former chairman of the Pakistan Flour Mills Association (PFMA) Sindh zone, said that only a very nominal quantity of flour varieties had been moving from Pakistan to Afghanistan over the past three to four years.
He said Pakistan does not export wheat to Afghanistan, which now procures most of its grain from Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
“In reality, we have lost the Afghan market for wheat and flour products, as well as the foreign exchange earnings,” he said.
Published in Dawn, November 30th, 2025
Business
ADB approves $381m for 3 projects concerning agriculture, education and health services in Punjab – Pakistan
The Asian Development Bank on Saturday approved three projects totalling $381 million concerning agriculture, education and health services in Punjab.
According to a press release, the development projects are aimed at fostering economic growth in the province.
“Investing in education, health, and agricultural mechanisation will play a transformative role in driving the growth of Punjab, a vital pillar of Pakistan’s economy,“ ADB Country Director for Pakistan Emma Fan was quoted as saying.
“These strategic investments will modernise agriculture, enhance human capital, and significantly improve livelihoods for millions of people across Punjab,” she said.
According to the handout, a $120 million concessional loan and $4 million grant have been allocated for the Punjab Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Agriculture Mechanisation Project to accelerate the province’s transition to modern, disaster-resilient, and low-carbon agriculture practices, benefiting 220,000 rural farm households.
“The project will help mechanise farming and provide alternative livelihoods for agricultural workers, including through boosting the knowledge and skills of 15,000 women. It will introduce a new financing model for farm mechanisation service providers to equip small-scale farmers with advanced machinery,” the ADB said.
The Bank also approved $107m for the Responsive, Ready, and Resilient Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Secondary Education in Punjab Programme.
“This includes a $7m grant from ADB’s Asian Development Fund and a $100m loan from ADB’s ordinary concessional capital resources. The results-based programme aims to modernise secondary education by enhancing inclusive science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education across Punjab. The project, implemented by the Punjab School Education Department, will improve access to quality education for students across the province,” it said.
Further, the ADB approved a $150m concessional loan for the Punjab Nursing and Health Workforce Reform Programme to enhance nursing education, develop disaster-resilient training facilities, and strengthen health workforce governance in Punjab.
It noted that Pakistan faced a shortage of qualified nurses while the global demand for trained nurses was growing.
“Modernising the nursing sector will meet national and international demands. The results-based programme will focus on upgrading nursing curricula, expanding faculty development initiatives, and implementing a digital human resource management information system to align workforce planning with healthcare service needs. By expanding the pool of qualified nurses, predominantly women, the program will improve health service delivery across the province,” it said.
It said that key components of the nursing programme included the establishment of three centres of excellence in Lahore, Multan, and Rawalpindi.
“These centres will feature state-of-the-art simulation laboratories, digital learning platforms, and gender-responsive hostels, addressing Punjab’s demand for skilled healthcare workforce capable of meeting growing local needs and employment opportunities abroad,” it said.
Business
IMF’s Executive Board to meet on Dec 8 to approve disbursement of $1.2bn to Pakistan – Business
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Executive Board will meet on December 8 (Monday) to approve $1.2 billion in loans to Pakistan.
The IMF had reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan on its loan programmes in October after extensive talks were held in Karachi, Islamabad and Washington from September 24 to October 8.
The agreement still requires approval from IMF’s Executive Board before funds can be released.
If approved, it would unlock about $1.2 billion in fresh financing for the country; roughly $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and another $200 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
The IMF confirmed the date of the meeting in a brief announcement on Friday. The official calendar posted on the IMF website also showed the Executive Board would review Pakistan’s loan programmes.
Negotiations between Islamabad and the lending agency, led by IMF mission chief Iva Petrova, had focused on Pakistan’s fiscal performance, monetary stance, structural reforms and progress on climate-related commitments.
In its earlier assessment, the IMF noted that Pakistan had made “strong progress” in fiscal consolidation, reducing inflation and strengthening external buffers. It also acknowledged the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) continued tight monetary policy, which has played a key role in anchoring inflation expectations.
Structural reforms — especially those related to state-owned enterprises, energy-sector viability, competition and public-service delivery — were cited as areas where the authorities had demonstrated continued commitment.
The Fund also pointed to advances under the RSF-supported climate agenda, including efforts to enhance resilience to natural disasters, strengthen water-resource management and improve the country’s climate-information systems.
These reforms have taken on greater urgency following recent floods that caused widespread damage to agriculture, infrastructure and livelihoods.
Approval of the reviews is widely expected to bolster investor confidence at a critical moment, as Pakistan continues to stabilise its economy amid external pressures and the lingering effects of flood damage.
Islamabad has been under sustained pressure to maintain fiscal discipline, accelerate energy-sector reforms and continue revenue-mobilisation measures to ensure longer-term stability.
The IMF has warned, however, that risks remain elevated. The economic outlook has been tempered by flood-related losses, and the Fund has emphasised that monetary policy must remain “appropriately tight and data-dependent” to keep inflation within the SBP’s target range.
It has also stressed the need for steady implementation of reforms to strengthen competition, enhance productivity, improve public services and reduce persistent vulnerabilities in the energy sector.
If the Board grants its approval on December 8, Pakistan could receive the disbursement as early as the following day.
Officials in Islamabad hope the inflow will reinforce external buffers, support economic recovery and signal continued international confidence in the government’s reform agenda.
Key report released ahead of meeting
Ahead of the meeting, the IMF released its long-awaited Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment (GCDA), in which it highlighted persistent corruption challenges in Pakistan driven by systemic weaknesses across state institutions and demanded immediate initiation of a 15-point reform agenda to improve transparency, fairness and integrity.
The report, publication of which is a precondition for the IMF Executive Board’s approval of the loan programmes, estimated that Pakistan could boost economic growth by about 5 to 6.5 per cent over five years if it implements a package of governance reforms beginning within the next three to six months.
The report led to criticism of the government, and opposition parties called for a probe into the “worst financial scandal of Pakistan’s history”.
However, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb stated last week that the report was “not criticism” but a “catalyst for accelerating long-overdue reforms”.
He maintained that the report acknowledged significant progress in sectors including taxation and governance, and that many of its priority recommendations were “already work in progress”.
The finance minister further said the government was committed to implementing the remaining recommendations as part of broader institutional reforms essential to sustaining Pakistan’s economic turnaround.
Business
Edible oil, wheat flour fuel SPI – Business
ISLAMABAD: Short-term inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Index (SPI), increased four per cent year-on-year in the week ending Dec 4, owing to an increase in the retail price of edible oil and wheat flour in the domestic market.
The SPI-based inflation has been on an upward trend for the past 18 consecutive weeks. A surge in the prices of perishable products, LPG cylinders, and electricity mainly drives the increase.
It, however, declined by 0.64pc from the previous week due to a slight decline in prices of tomatoes, potatoes and onions, official data showed on Friday.
The prices of tomatoes, onions, and potatoes rose sharply due to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the border with Afghanistan. The extraordinary spike in the retail prices of sugar and meat also contributed to fuel the short-term inflation.
The weekly inflation hit a record 48.35pc year-on-year in early May 2023, but then decelerated to 24.4pc in late August 2023 before surging past 40pc during the week ending Nov 16, 2023.
The items whose prices increased the most over the previous week included LPG (3.50pc), garlic (1.86pc), cooking oil 5 litre (1.54pc), eggs (0.81pc), bread (0.57pc), vegetable ghee 1 kg (0.40pc), powdered milk (0.36pc), bananas and wheat flour (0.28pc) each and cigarettes (0.25pc).
The items whose prices saw a decline week-on-week included tomatoes (30.11pc), onions (12.41pc), potatoes (6.92pc), chicken (4.46pc), sugar (3.31pc), diesel (1.67pc), pulse gram (1.55pc), pulse masoor (1.33pc), gur (1pc) and petrol (0.73pc).
However, on an annual basis, the items whose prices increased the most included sugar (37.49pc), gas charges for Q1 (29.85pc), wheat flour (17.50pc), gur (15.06pc), beef (13.47pc), firewood (12.59pc), bananas (11.06pc), powdered milk (9.03pc), diesel (8.42pc), lawn printed (8.29pc), cooking oil 5 litre (8.19pc) and vegetable ghee 2.5 kg (7.59pc).
In contrast, the prices of potatoes dropped 40.47pc, followed by garlic (38.51pc), tomatoes (31.51pc), onions (29.87pc), pulse gram (29.54pc), tea Lipton (17.79pc), pulse mash (13.82pc), electricity charges for Q1 (8.40pc) and salt powder (5.13pc).
Published in Dawn, December 6th, 2025
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