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Equities eke out modest gains amid dearth of triggers

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KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) managed modest gains in the outgoing week, reflecting investor caution amid a lack of significant news flow and persistent macroeconomic uncertainties.

The week was marked by mixed economic indicators: a widening current account deficit and stable foreign exchange reserves, while key sectors such as Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) and technology exports posted positive growth.

The most notable development was the current account deficit (CAD) for October, which stood at $112 million, reversing from a surplus of $83m in September. The trade deficit for the month reached $3.28 billion, with a cumulative gap of $12.6bn for the first four months of the 2025-26, widening by 38.9pc year-on-year.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 26 per cent to $747.7m in 4MFY26, compared with $1.01bn in the same period of the previous fiscal year. However, the FDI showed some resilience, with October’s inflows reaching $179m, up 23pc YoY despite a slight month-on-month decline.

Investors remain cautious on mixed economic data

In other positive news, Pakistan’s technology exports hit a record high of $386m in October, up 17pc year-on-year and 5pc month-on-month, reflecting the growing significance of the tech sector in Pakistan’s export landscape.

As a result, the KSE 100 index closed at 162,102.92 points, gaining a meagre 168 points. Arif Habib Ltd (AHL) attributed the rise to sector-specific catalysts, particularly the performance of Fauji Fertiliser Com­pany, which benefited from its inclusion in the KMI-30 Index, and Pak­i­s­tan Petroleum Ltd, which saw incr­e­ased investor interest due to offshore activities. Pioneer Cement also rallied, buoyed by speculation around potential mergers and acquisitions.

The average daily trading volume for the week stood at 1.05 billion shares, with the average value of Rs37.8bn. Despite these figures, market participation remained relatively subdued, with investors preferring to stay on the sidelines amid broader economic challenges.

Pakistan’s banking sector also saw mixed performance. Deposits rose by 13pc year-on-year to Rs35.2 trillion in October, but advances declined by 3.6pc to Rs13.3tr, reflecting a tightening of credit amid economic uncertainty. Mea­nwhile, the country’s power generation declined by 3.7pc year-on-year to 9,886 GWh in October, although costs dropped by 6pc to Rs8.51 per kWh, partly due to falling global crude prices.

In the energy sector, crude oil imports rose by 28.5pc year-on-year to 691,479 tonnes, while petroleum, oil and lubricants imports increased by 30.6pc. Conversely, regasified liquefied natural gas arrivals fell by 11pc year-on-year, and exports of furnace oil surged to 214,000 tonnes.

Looking ahead, market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. AHL suggests that the KSE 100 index is likely to maintain its positive momentum, particularly if geopolitical tensions ease. The benchmark is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 8.18x, slightly below its 15-year average of 8.59x, offering an attractive dividend yield of around 5.9pc.

Analysts at AKD Securities believe investor sentiment is being boosted by expectations of foreign portfolio and direct investment, especially amid improved relations with key international players such as the United States and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, the most anticipated approval of the country’s second review under the Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Fund by the IMF’s executive board early next month, which would pave the way for the release of $1.2bn, may provide additional stability.

Challenges persist as the deadlock in peace talks with Afghanistan continues to weigh on market sentiment. Additionally, concerns about governance and corruption remain after the release of the IMF’s Governance and Corruption Diag­nostic Assessment Report.

Despite ongoing uncertainties, AKD Securities believes the index remains an attractive opportunity for investors due to its relatively low valuations and promising dividend yield. However, the outlook largely hinges on resolving geopolitical issues and effectively implementing economic reforms. As the market processes both positive and negative macroeconomic data, it is expected to remain volatile, although with a generally positive trend in the near term.

Published in Dawn, November 23rd, 2025



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Pakistan’s OGDCL ramps up unconventional gas plans – Business

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The state-run Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) is planning a major expansion of unconventional gas developments from early next year, aiming to boost production and reduce reliance on imported liquefied natural gas.

Pakistan has long been viewed as having potential in both tight and shale gas, which are trapped in rock and can only be released with specialised drilling, but commercial output has yet to be proved.

Managing Director Ahmed Lak told Reuters that OGDCL had tripled its tight-gas study area to 4,500 square kilometres after new seismic and reservoir analysis indicated larger potential. Phase two of a technical evaluation will finish by the end of January, followed by full development plans.

The renewed push comes after US President Donald Trump said Pakistan held “massive” oil reserves in July, a statement analysts said lacked credible geological evidence, but which prompted Islamabad to underscore that it is pursuing its own efforts to unlock unconventional resources.

Ahmed Hayat Lak, Managing Director and CEO of the Oil & Gas Development Company Limited, speaks during an interview with Reuters, during the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2025, in Islamabad on April 9. — Reuters

“We started with 85 wells, but the footprint has expanded massively,” Lak said, adding that OGDCL’s next five-year plan would look “drastically different”.

Early results point to a “significant” resource across parts of Sindh and Balochistan, where multiple reservoirs show tight-gas characteristics, he said.

Shale pilot ramps up

OGDCL is also fast-tracking its shale programme, shifting from a single test well to a five-to-six-well plan in 2026-27, with expected flows of 34 million standard cubic feet per day (mmcfd) per well. If successful, the development could scale to hundreds or even more than 1,000 wells, Lak said.

He said shale alone could eventually add 600 mmcfd to 1 billion standard cubic feet per day of incremental supply, though partners would be needed if the pilot proves viable.

The company is open to partners “on a reciprocal basis”, potentially exchanging acreage abroad for participation in Pakistan, he said.

A 2015 US Energy Information Administration study estimated Pakistan had 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil, the largest such resource outside China and the United States.

A 2022 assessment found parts of the Indus Basin geologically comparable to North American shale plays, though analysts say commercial viability still hinges on better geomechanical data, expanded fracking capacity and water availability.

OGDCL plans to begin drilling a deep-water offshore well in the Indus Basin in the fourth quarter of 2026, Lak said. In October, Turkey’s TPAO, with PPL and its consortium partners, including OGDCL, were awarded a block for offshore exploration.

A combination of weak gas demand, rising solar uptake and a rigid LNG import schedule has created a surplus of gas that forced OGDCL to curb output and pushed Pakistan to divert cargoes from Italy’s ENI and seek revised terms with Qatar.



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Netflix to buy Warner Bros Discovery for nearly $83 billion – World

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Streaming giant Netflix has agreed to acquire film and television studio Warner Bros Discovery for nearly $83 billion, the two US companies announced on Friday.

The acquisition, which gives Netflix access to a vast film catalogue as well as the prestigious streaming service HBO Max, is the largest consolidation deal in the entertainment industry since Disney’s $71bn acquisition of Fox in 2019.

The transaction values Warner Bros Discovery at $27.75 per share, implying a total equity value of approximately $72.0bn and an enterprise value — including debt — of around $82.7bn.

Warner Bros. Discovery shares closed at $24.54 on the Nasdaq on Thursday.

Over the decades, Warner Brothers has produced film classics including Casablanca and Citizen Kane, as well as more recent blockbuster shows including ‘The Sopranos’, ‘Game of Thrones’ and the Harry Potter movies.

“Together, we can give audiences more of what they love and help define the next century of storytelling,” said Ted Sarandos, co-CEO of Netflix, which has produced global hits including ‘Stranger Things’, KPop Demon Hunters and ‘Squid Game’.

“Today’s announcement combines two of the greatest storytelling companies in the world,” said David Zaslav, President and CEO of Warner Bros Discovery, in the statement.

The transaction, which was unanimously approved by the boards of both companies, is to close within 12 to 18 months, they said.



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Pakistan will ‘definitely launch’ sovereign stablecoin, crypto czar says – Business

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Chairman of the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA) Bilal Bin Saqib announced that Pakistan is set to launch its first “stablecoin” as part of its drive to make virtual assets a part of the economy.

The PVARA is an autonomous federal body governed by a multi-stakeholder board including the governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan and the chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue. Its mandate is to curb illicit finance, protect consumers and unlock opportunities in fintech, remittances and tokenised assets, while fostering Shariah-compliant innovation through regulatory sandboxes.

A stablecoin, according to Bloomberg, is a digital token whose value is intrinsically linked to a physical currency, such as the US dollar, making it more stable than other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.­

Speaking at Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, the crypto czar said that Pakistan will “definitely launch” a stablecoin, adding that the country is working on both that and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).

“I think it is a great way to collateralise the government debt,” Saqib said. “We want to be at the forefront of this financial digital innovation that is happening. Why should we be at the tail-end of it when we have the muscle and the adoption?”

The Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) said that Saqib also participated in a panel discussion on the future of virtual assets and emerging-market regulation, according to a post on their X account.

“He emphasised that for countries like Pakistan, clear and innovation-friendly crypto regulation is a key driver of economic growth,” the post read. “Pakistan’s work on stablecoins, data frameworks, and banking the unbanked can become valuable case studies for the world.”

Earlier this year, Saqib unveiled the country’s first government-led Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. He announced the reserve after delivering a keynote address before an elite audience, which included United States Vice President JD Vance, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr, at the Bitcoin Vegas 2025 in Las Vegas.

In May, the government announced the allocation of 2,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity in the first phase of a national initiative to power Bitcoin mining and artificial intelligence (AI) data centres.



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