KARACHI: Urea sales are expected to clock in at 218,000 tonnes in January, a 75-month low and down by 84 per cent month-on-month and 51pc year-on-year.

Topline Securities, in its report on Monday, noted that the sharp slowdown follows advance purchases in December 2025, driven by higher manufacturer discounts, which pushed December 2025 sales to an all-time high of 1.36 million tonnes.

Discounts offered by select manufacturers decreased in January, with Engro Fertilisers Ltd offering Rs100-150 per bag, down from Rs400 in December 2025, while Fauji Fertiliser Company did not offer any discounts in January after offering Rs150-200 per bag in December 2025.

The closing inventory of urea is expected to be around 0.63m tonnes in January, up from 0.32m tonnes in December 2025. The inventory rise reflects normalisation after an exceptionally strong December 2025, as discounts were rolled back, seasonal Rabi demand tapered, and production remained steady, leading to an inventory build-up.

Company-wise, Fatima Group holds the highest inventory of 220,000 tonnes, followed by Engro Fertilisers of 264,000 tonnes, and Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC) of 90,000 tonnes.

Among the companies, Engro Fertiliser is anticipated to record a massive 96pc month-on-month and 77pc year-on-year decrease in urea sales to 24,000 tonnes in January. While Fauji Fertiliser is expected to record urea sales of 175,000 tonnes, down 54pc month-on-month and 10pc year-on-year, followed by Fatima Fertiliser of 7,000 tonnes, down 97pc month-on-month and 93pc year-on-year, in January.

Total DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) sales in January is likely to be at 34,000 tonnes, down 58pc month-on-month and 45pc year-on-year.

Published in Dawn, February 3rd, 2026

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ISLAMABAD: Pakis­tan and Uzbekistan resolved on Monday to expand the scope of their Preferential Trade Agreement to increase their trade beyond $2 billion in two years — from around $450 million last year —and to deepen cooperation in various economic fields.

At a meeting of the Pak-Uzbek Intergovernmental Commission (IGC), the two sides agreed to more than double the list of items for bilateral trade from 17 at present. The two sides had signed the agreement in March 2022 and it came into effect in 2023.

The 10th IGC on Trade, Economic and Scientific-Technical Cooperation was co-chaired by Haroon Akhtar Khan, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister for Industries and Production, and Uzbe­kistan’s Trade Minister Laziz Kudratov.

“The engagement enabled a comprehensive review of bilateral relations and established a forward-looking roadmap to strengthen joint efforts in major economic and social sectors”, a joint statement said.

The parties welcomed the progress on Phase II concessions of the Preferential Trade Agreement, the statement added.

The two sides “agreed to expedite institutional mechanisms to achieve the agreed target of $2bn in bilateral trade”.

Both sides expressed satisfaction over the steady progress achieved since the previous IGC session last year and reaffirmed their resolve to expand bilateral trade, investment, and economic engagement.

Emphasis was placed on trade facilitation, improved logistics, customs digitalisation, transit trade cooperation, development of regional trade corridors, and enhanced business-to-business engagement, supported by impro­ved visa facilitation for business communities.

The two sides also agreed to establish a joint working group on labour relations, tasked with addressing labour mobility, skills development, workplace safety, and practical considerations linked to employment visas.

Transport and communications

In transport and communications sector, the commission welcomed interest in launching direct air services, reviewed progress on regional railway and connectivity projects, and agreed to advance alternative transport corridors to improve regional trade and transit connectivity.

Cooperation in agriculture and food security featured prominently, with both sides welcoming progress on phytosanitary protocols facilitating the export of fruits from Uzbekistan to Pakistan.

The parties agreed to expand collaboration through additional protocols, joint working groups, and technical cooperation in plant protection, livestock development, and agricultural research, with a shared focus on food security and sustainable agricultural growth.

In higher education, science, and technology, the commission welcomed progress on academic and research partnerships between leading institutions of the two countries.

Both sides agreed to promote joint research, faculty and student exchanges, vocational and technical training, innovation, and capacity building, supported by newly signed agreements in scientific, technical, and innovation fields to strengthen long-term knowledge cooperation and human capital development.

Environmental and climate cooperation was recognised as a shared priority, with both sides agreeing to collaborate on climate resilience, protection of glacial ecosystems, sustainable water management, environmental governance, gender-inclusive climate action, and comm­unity-based adaptation approaches.

Published in Dawn, February 3rd, 2026

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LONDON: Oil and gold prices fell as concerns eased over US monetary policy and the chances of an American attack on Iran, while stock markets pushed higher.

Both main crude oil contracts shed around five per cent on easing US-Iran tensions. The Brent North Sea crude fell 4.9 per cent to $65.51 per barrel while the West Texas Intermediate shed 5.2pc to $61.81 per barrel.

“The trigger for the sharp reversal were comments from President Trump suggesting an easing of tensions with Iran,” said Trade Nation analyst David Morrison. “This reduced fears of an immediate supply shock,” he added.

Washington has hit out at the country’s leadership in recent weeks over its deadly response to anti-government protests, with Trump threatening military action.

He has also pushed for an agreement over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Gold, which has benefitted from safe haven trading when geopolitical tensions mount as well as the lower value of the US dollars, continued its slide lower.

It shed 0.7 percent to $4,710 an ounce, well below the record highs above $5,500 it hit last week.

“Many investors bought gold and silver as protection against the volatile geopolitical backdrop, yet they’ve learned the hard way these assets can also be volatile themselves,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

It also took a hit on news that US President Donald Trump had chosen Kevin Warsh to become new head of the US Federal Reserve.

Traders regard Warsh, a former Morgan Stanley investment banker and Fed governor, as the toughest inflation fighter among the final candidates, raising expectations that his monetary policy would underpin the greenback.

The choice also eased concerns about the Fed’s independence following a series of attacks on incumbent Jerome Powell over his reticence to cut rates as quickly as the president wanted.

Published in Dawn, February 3rd, 2026

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