Business
Govt utters cautious optimism amid mixed economic performance
• Expenditures swell 11.9pc against revenue growth of 11.4pc in July-October
• Public debt records first quarterly decline of Rs1.371tr in five years
• Key crops cotton, rice see production fall; sugarcane and chillies rise
ISLAMABAD: With a 256 per cent surge in current account deficit, the government on Friday expressed cautious optimism over the country’s economic outlook with stubborn inflation in 5-6pc range due to pressure on food prices and agriculture production.
In its economic update and outlook for November, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) said the industrial activity continued to strengthen amid implementation of reforms.
However, all major fiscal indicators — FBR collection, non-tax revenue, budget surplus and primary surplus — were down as percentage of GDP. The report showed the tax-to-GDP ratio was slightly lower at 2.96pc in first four months of 2025-26 when compared to 3pc last year. Non-tax revenues were also reported at 2.32pc of GDP against 2.63pc in comparable period.
Fiscal surplus was also down this year at 1.63pc of GDP against 1.65pc last year while primary surplus was reported at 2.7pc this year when compared to 2.8pc last year.
The ministry said the crop outlook showed mixed trend and hoped the ‘adequate input availability and government support measures’ to stabilise supplies as the rabi season progressed.
The current account deficit swelled to $733 million during July-October 2025-26 from $206m recorded last year, showing an increase of 255.8pc, the MoF said but claimed that the current account deficit remained “within the expected range, on the back of steady export growth and strong remittance inflows despite the increase in import demand to meet the production requirements”.
Overall, the economy is projected to maintain its positive momentum, supported by continued structural reforms, digital transition, governance improvements, on the back of ongoing efforts toward fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stabilisation, the report observed.
It said the key indicators were showing improvement as fiscal discipline was maintained through stronger revenue mobilisation and prudent expenditure management. However, the report showed expenditure growth at 11.9pc outpacing revenue growth of 11.4pc.
It said the higher remittances and expanding Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector and IT exports strengthened the economic outlook. Backed by healthy realisation of State Bank of Pakistan’s profits due to record interest rates, the ministry said the public debt declined by over Rs1.371trillion, marking the first quarterly reduction in more than five years.
“This decline reflects strategic use of surplus funds for early retirement of costly debt, thereby reducing refinancing and rollover risks and strengthening macroeconomic stability,” it noted.
Elaborating the mixed agriculture outlook, the report said the sugarcane production for the current season had been estimated to show an increase of 0.6pc to 84.74 million tonnes from 84.24m tonnes last year despite floods.
On the other hand, cotton output is estimated at 6.85m bales, down 3.3pc from 7.08m bales. Similarly, rice production declined by 3.2pc to 9.41m tonnes from 9.72m tonnes and maize production by 6.7pc to 8.43m tonnes from 9.03m tonnes last year.
However, mung and chillies production increased by 14.9pc and 0.5pc to 150,800 and 114,400 tonnes, respectively, from last year.
During 4MFY26, agricultural credit disbursement increased by 18.6pc to Rs845.3bn from Rs712.8bn last year.
The imports of agricultural machinery and implements increased by 23.5pc to $49.3m during from $39.9m in 4MFY25. The LSM output rose 4.1pc during July-September of the current fiscal year with 15 sectors recording positive growth, including textile, wearing apparel, non-metallic mineral products, food, coke & petroleum products, electrical equipment, automobile and tobacco.
On the positive side, service exports grew by 15.9pc to $3bn compared to 12pc import growth to $4.2bn, with a service trade deficit of $1.2bn against $1.1bn. IT exports were up by 19.6pc to $1.4bn.
The report confirmed that during the first quarter of FY26, net federal revenues increased by 2.4pc to Rs4.117tr compared to Rs4.019tr last year. However, the FBR’s collection rose 11.4pc to Rs3.835tr during 4MFY26. On the expenditure side, total outlays increased by 11.9pc during July-September to Rs2.779tr. Consequently, the federal fiscal balance recorded a second time surplus of Rs1.338tr, compared to a surplus of Rs1.536tr. The primary balance also improved in absolute terms, posting a surplus of Rs3.497tr, up from Rs3.202tr in the corresponding period.
Merchandise exports increased by 2pc ($10.6bn) in first four months but were overwhelmingly outpaced by 9.6pc growth in imports ($20.7bn), resulting in a $10.1bn trade deficit, compared to $8.5bn last year, showing a 19pc surge.
Remittances increased by 9.3pc to $13bn, led by inflows from Saudi Arabia (24.2pc share) and the United Arab Emirates (20.7pc). Net FDI inflows declined by 26pc to $747.7m in first four months led by $226.7m from China and $120m from Hong Kong.
Published in Dawn, November 29th, 2025
Business
ADB approves $381m for 3 projects concerning agriculture, education and health services in Punjab – Pakistan
The Asian Development Bank on Saturday approved three projects totalling $381 million concerning agriculture, education and health services in Punjab.
According to a press release, the development projects are aimed at fostering economic growth in the province.
“Investing in education, health, and agricultural mechanisation will play a transformative role in driving the growth of Punjab, a vital pillar of Pakistan’s economy,“ ADB Country Director for Pakistan Emma Fan was quoted as saying.
“These strategic investments will modernise agriculture, enhance human capital, and significantly improve livelihoods for millions of people across Punjab,” she said.
According to the handout, a $120 million concessional loan and $4 million grant have been allocated for the Punjab Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Agriculture Mechanisation Project to accelerate the province’s transition to modern, disaster-resilient, and low-carbon agriculture practices, benefiting 220,000 rural farm households.
“The project will help mechanise farming and provide alternative livelihoods for agricultural workers, including through boosting the knowledge and skills of 15,000 women. It will introduce a new financing model for farm mechanisation service providers to equip small-scale farmers with advanced machinery,” the ADB said.
The Bank also approved $107m for the Responsive, Ready, and Resilient Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Secondary Education in Punjab Programme.
“This includes a $7m grant from ADB’s Asian Development Fund and a $100m loan from ADB’s ordinary concessional capital resources. The results-based programme aims to modernise secondary education by enhancing inclusive science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education across Punjab. The project, implemented by the Punjab School Education Department, will improve access to quality education for students across the province,” it said.
Further, the ADB approved a $150m concessional loan for the Punjab Nursing and Health Workforce Reform Programme to enhance nursing education, develop disaster-resilient training facilities, and strengthen health workforce governance in Punjab.
It noted that Pakistan faced a shortage of qualified nurses while the global demand for trained nurses was growing.
“Modernising the nursing sector will meet national and international demands. The results-based programme will focus on upgrading nursing curricula, expanding faculty development initiatives, and implementing a digital human resource management information system to align workforce planning with healthcare service needs. By expanding the pool of qualified nurses, predominantly women, the program will improve health service delivery across the province,” it said.
It said that key components of the nursing programme included the establishment of three centres of excellence in Lahore, Multan, and Rawalpindi.
“These centres will feature state-of-the-art simulation laboratories, digital learning platforms, and gender-responsive hostels, addressing Punjab’s demand for skilled healthcare workforce capable of meeting growing local needs and employment opportunities abroad,” it said.
Business
IMF’s Executive Board to meet on Dec 8 to approve disbursement of $1.2bn to Pakistan – Business
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Executive Board will meet on December 8 (Monday) to approve $1.2 billion in loans to Pakistan.
The IMF had reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan on its loan programmes in October after extensive talks were held in Karachi, Islamabad and Washington from September 24 to October 8.
The agreement still requires approval from IMF’s Executive Board before funds can be released.
If approved, it would unlock about $1.2 billion in fresh financing for the country; roughly $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and another $200 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
The IMF confirmed the date of the meeting in a brief announcement on Friday. The official calendar posted on the IMF website also showed the Executive Board would review Pakistan’s loan programmes.
Negotiations between Islamabad and the lending agency, led by IMF mission chief Iva Petrova, had focused on Pakistan’s fiscal performance, monetary stance, structural reforms and progress on climate-related commitments.
In its earlier assessment, the IMF noted that Pakistan had made “strong progress” in fiscal consolidation, reducing inflation and strengthening external buffers. It also acknowledged the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) continued tight monetary policy, which has played a key role in anchoring inflation expectations.
Structural reforms — especially those related to state-owned enterprises, energy-sector viability, competition and public-service delivery — were cited as areas where the authorities had demonstrated continued commitment.
The Fund also pointed to advances under the RSF-supported climate agenda, including efforts to enhance resilience to natural disasters, strengthen water-resource management and improve the country’s climate-information systems.
These reforms have taken on greater urgency following recent floods that caused widespread damage to agriculture, infrastructure and livelihoods.
Approval of the reviews is widely expected to bolster investor confidence at a critical moment, as Pakistan continues to stabilise its economy amid external pressures and the lingering effects of flood damage.
Islamabad has been under sustained pressure to maintain fiscal discipline, accelerate energy-sector reforms and continue revenue-mobilisation measures to ensure longer-term stability.
The IMF has warned, however, that risks remain elevated. The economic outlook has been tempered by flood-related losses, and the Fund has emphasised that monetary policy must remain “appropriately tight and data-dependent” to keep inflation within the SBP’s target range.
It has also stressed the need for steady implementation of reforms to strengthen competition, enhance productivity, improve public services and reduce persistent vulnerabilities in the energy sector.
If the Board grants its approval on December 8, Pakistan could receive the disbursement as early as the following day.
Officials in Islamabad hope the inflow will reinforce external buffers, support economic recovery and signal continued international confidence in the government’s reform agenda.
Key report released ahead of meeting
Ahead of the meeting, the IMF released its long-awaited Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment (GCDA), in which it highlighted persistent corruption challenges in Pakistan driven by systemic weaknesses across state institutions and demanded immediate initiation of a 15-point reform agenda to improve transparency, fairness and integrity.
The report, publication of which is a precondition for the IMF Executive Board’s approval of the loan programmes, estimated that Pakistan could boost economic growth by about 5 to 6.5 per cent over five years if it implements a package of governance reforms beginning within the next three to six months.
The report led to criticism of the government, and opposition parties called for a probe into the “worst financial scandal of Pakistan’s history”.
However, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb stated last week that the report was “not criticism” but a “catalyst for accelerating long-overdue reforms”.
He maintained that the report acknowledged significant progress in sectors including taxation and governance, and that many of its priority recommendations were “already work in progress”.
The finance minister further said the government was committed to implementing the remaining recommendations as part of broader institutional reforms essential to sustaining Pakistan’s economic turnaround.
Business
Edible oil, wheat flour fuel SPI – Business
ISLAMABAD: Short-term inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Index (SPI), increased four per cent year-on-year in the week ending Dec 4, owing to an increase in the retail price of edible oil and wheat flour in the domestic market.
The SPI-based inflation has been on an upward trend for the past 18 consecutive weeks. A surge in the prices of perishable products, LPG cylinders, and electricity mainly drives the increase.
It, however, declined by 0.64pc from the previous week due to a slight decline in prices of tomatoes, potatoes and onions, official data showed on Friday.
The prices of tomatoes, onions, and potatoes rose sharply due to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the border with Afghanistan. The extraordinary spike in the retail prices of sugar and meat also contributed to fuel the short-term inflation.
The weekly inflation hit a record 48.35pc year-on-year in early May 2023, but then decelerated to 24.4pc in late August 2023 before surging past 40pc during the week ending Nov 16, 2023.
The items whose prices increased the most over the previous week included LPG (3.50pc), garlic (1.86pc), cooking oil 5 litre (1.54pc), eggs (0.81pc), bread (0.57pc), vegetable ghee 1 kg (0.40pc), powdered milk (0.36pc), bananas and wheat flour (0.28pc) each and cigarettes (0.25pc).
The items whose prices saw a decline week-on-week included tomatoes (30.11pc), onions (12.41pc), potatoes (6.92pc), chicken (4.46pc), sugar (3.31pc), diesel (1.67pc), pulse gram (1.55pc), pulse masoor (1.33pc), gur (1pc) and petrol (0.73pc).
However, on an annual basis, the items whose prices increased the most included sugar (37.49pc), gas charges for Q1 (29.85pc), wheat flour (17.50pc), gur (15.06pc), beef (13.47pc), firewood (12.59pc), bananas (11.06pc), powdered milk (9.03pc), diesel (8.42pc), lawn printed (8.29pc), cooking oil 5 litre (8.19pc) and vegetable ghee 2.5 kg (7.59pc).
In contrast, the prices of potatoes dropped 40.47pc, followed by garlic (38.51pc), tomatoes (31.51pc), onions (29.87pc), pulse gram (29.54pc), tea Lipton (17.79pc), pulse mash (13.82pc), electricity charges for Q1 (8.40pc) and salt powder (5.13pc).
Published in Dawn, December 6th, 2025
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