Consumer price inflation rose 5.8 per cent year-on-year in January, official data showed on Monday, underscoring the central bank’s warning that price pressures could temporarily breach its target band as economic activity picks up.

The reading comes a week after the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) held its policy rate at 10.50pc, saying inflation could exceed its 5pc to 7pc medium-term target range for a few months this year, even as growth gains momentum and imports push the trade deficit wider.

The reading from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PSB) compared with 5.6pc in December, when prices fell on a monthly basis due to lower perishable food costs.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 0.4pc in January.

The SBP said it viewed the real policy rate as sufficiently positive to stabilise inflation over the medium term, even as it flagged stronger domestic demand and external pressures as upside risks to prices.

The finance ministry had projected inflation would remain within a 5pc to 6pc range in January.

An International Monetary Fund staff report has cautioned against premature monetary easing under the $7 billion loan programme, urging policymakers to remain data-dependent to anchor inflation expectations and rebuild external buffers.

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Consumer price inflation rose 5.8 per cent year-on-year in January, official data showed on Monday, underscoring the central bank’s warning that price pressures could temporarily breach its target band as economic activity picks up.

The reading comes a week after the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) held its policy rate at 10.50pc, saying inflation could exceed its 5pc to 7pc medium-term target range for a few months this year, even as growth gains momentum and imports push the trade deficit wider.

The reading from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PSB) compared with 5.6pc in December, when prices fell on a monthly basis due to lower perishable food costs.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 0.4pc in January.

The SBP said it viewed the real policy rate as sufficiently positive to stabilise inflation over the medium term, even as it flagged stronger domestic demand and external pressures as upside risks to prices.

The finance ministry had projected inflation would remain within a 5pc to 6pc range in January.

An International Monetary Fund staff report has cautioned against premature monetary easing under the $7 billion loan programme, urging policymakers to remain data-dependent to anchor inflation expectations and rebuild external buffers.

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Pakistan’s benchmark index, KSE-100, rebounded late afternoon on Monday after a dip in early intraday trading.

The index had been down 0.18 per cent from its previous close of 184,174.48 points at 11:20am, to 183,840.03 points. However, by 3:00pm, KSE-100 had recovered to the 185,135 level, up 960 points (advancing 0.52pc) from last week’s close.

The early drop came on the heels of a particularly turbulent week for Pakistan’s equities market. The index lost over 6,000 points last Thursday after the State Bank kept interest rates unchanged.

The index had rebounded slightly to close in the green on Friday.

The top active stocks were led by First National Equities Limited with a volume of 173,349,230 at Rs1.65, followed by Hascol Petroleum Limited with a volume of 48,626,249 at Rs26.10, and K-Electric Limited with a volume of 35,443,843 at Rs96.16.

Shoaib Memon, executive vice president of equities at AKD Securities, said the reaction of the central bank’s decision to maintain the key policy rate at 10.5pc should have a “short-term” negative reaction, and that even within US-Iran geopolitical tensions, “positive sentiment” will prevail.

According to a technical analysis from brokerage firm Arif Habib Limited, last week’s setup sets a “renewed attempt to break above the recently established resistance zone of 184,570-185,625 points”.

The firm also notes that a breakout “above this band would open the door for a test of the next major resistance area at 186,125-186,700 points”. Additionally, “immediate support is seen between 183,700 and 182,200” and “a clear breach below this range would reinforce bearish pressure and could lead to further declines”.

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