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Middle East war to hamper Pakistan’s external trade – Business

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KARACHI: The war in the Middle East will severely hamper Pakistan’s trade with the region, as both exports and crucial imports have come to a halt following the cancellation of flights and suspension of shipping operations.

Hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis are stranded in the Middle East as all flights to and from the region were suspended in the wake of war erupted after attacks on Iran by Israel and the US.

Pakistanis have expressed concern over the consequences of the war for the country and for the millions Pakistani workers living in the Middle East. An immediate issue is the large number of Pakistanis currently in Saudi Arabia to perform Umrah.

The business community is in shock, as their exports to the Middle East will remain suspended until the conflict subsides. The UAE is the second-largest trading partner of Pakistan, while the country imports most of its oil from the Middle East. Pakistan also imports liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar.

Remittances likely to decline during Ramazan

Iran had earlier warned that in the event of war, the Strait of Hormuz would be closed, which means oil supply from the Middle East will come to a halt. Such a move would also hurt oil-producing countries in the region as their economies largely depend on oil revenues.

Pakistan depends heavily on remittances sent by overseas Pakistanis to support its foreign exchange reserves, which reached $40 billion in FY25.

“The immediate impact of this war is reflected in the lower demand for foreign currencies like Saudi riyal, UAE dirham and US dollar,” said Malik Bostan, chairman of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan. He added that these currencies have lost value against the Pakistani rupee, but the actual situation will become clearer on Monday, the first working day after the outbreak of war in the region as banks’ currency markets remain closed on Saturday.

Currency market experts also anticipated that inflows of remittances may decline, particularly during the month of Ramazan.

“There is no obstacle to remittances, but thousands of Pakistanis usually return home for Eid and bring foreign currencies, which are later sold in the open market. This inflow of millions of dollars (in terms of value) will see a decline,” said Mr Bostan.

Millions of Pakistanis working in the Middle East may feel insecure due to the war, while those in Saudi Arabia for Umrah will require arrangements to return home.

Trade with UAE, KSA

Trade with the UAE in FY25 was $10.1bn, with Pakistan’s exports to the country stood at $2.1bn, leaving the balance of trade clearly in favour of the UAE.

Pakistan’s exports to Saudi Arabia in FY25 stood at $700m. Data for calendar year 2024 showed that imports from Saudi Arabia was $4.5bn.

Pakistan’s export is already facing a stagnant situation despite the government’s ambitious plan to boost exports to $60bn within three years, one year of which has already passed.

The war in the region has not only destroyed this dream, but is also likely to significantly hurt overall export performance.

Published in Dawn, March 1st, 2026



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UAE halts stock markets for two days after Iran strikes – Business

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has ordered its stock markets closed on Monday and Tuesday as the country reels from Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strikes, in a sign of the growing economic disruption sweeping the Gulf.

Iran carried out the strikes in Gulf countries that have US bases and assets after joint attacks on the Islamic republic by Israel and America.

The UAE Capital Markets Authority said the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market would remain shut on March 2 and March 3, citing its supervisory and regulatory role over the country’s capital markets.

“The Authority will continue to monitor developments in the region and assess the situation on an ongoing basis, taking any further measures as necessary,” it said in a statement.

The UAE’s two exchanges are home to some of the region’s most valuable listed companies.

The closure keeps billions of dollars in listed assets in suspension as investors await clarity on the scale of damage from Saturday and Sunday’s strikes, which hit airports, ports and residential areas across the UAE and broader Gulf region.

Gulf markets that did open on Sunday saw sharp declines. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index fell more than four per cent at the open, Oman dropped 3pc and Egypt’s main index shed 5.44pc, while Kuwait suspended trading entirely.

All parties were advised to follow official UAE Capital Markets Authority, ADX and DFM channels for updates on the resumption of trading.



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Oil jumps 10pc on Iran conflict and could spike to $100 a barrel, analysts say – World

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Brent crude jumped 10 per cent to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after US and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war.

The global oil benchmark has rallied this year and reached $73 a barrel on Friday for its highest since July, buoyed by growing concern over the potential attacks that arrived a day later. Futures trading is closed over the weekend.

“While the military attacks are themselves supportive for oil prices, the key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS.

Most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said, after Tehran warned ships against moving through the waterway. More than 20pc of global oil is moved through the Strait of Hormuz.

Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could lead to oil prices jumping to more than $100 a barrel, said RBC analyst Helima Croft. Rabobank analysts are slightly less bullish, seeing prices holding above $90 a barrel in the near term.

The OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed on Sunday to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April, a modest increase representing less than 0.2pc of global demand.

While some alternate infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the net impact from its closure would be a loss of 8million to 10m bpd of crude oil supply even after diverting some flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and Abu Dhabi’s pipeline, said Rystad Energy economist Jorge Leon.

Rystad expects prices to rise by $20 to about $92 a barrel when trade opens.

The Iran crisis also prompted Asian governments and refiners to assess oil stockpiles and alternative shipping routes and supplies. Kpler analysts said in a webinar on Sunday that India might turn to Russian oil to make up for potential Middle East supply loss.



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IMF discusses economic outlook with multinationals – Business

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KARACHI: The visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission engaged with foreign multinationals to discuss Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability, future economic outlook, export-led growth, taxation measures, and the perspectives of foreign investors operating in the country.

A team from the Pakistan Business Council (PBC), led by its Chairperson, Dr Zeelaf Munir, met on Friday with Ms Iva Petrova, who is heading the IMF mission, and the resident representative, Mahir Binici. A delegation from the Overseas Investors Chambers of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) also met with the IMF officials.

The statements issued by the PBC and OICCI, however, didn’t mention what the IMF team said during the discussions.

The PBC delegation noted that stabilisation must now translate into investment, productivity and employment generation. With the SBP’s policy rate at 10.5 per cent and a primary surplus recorded, the discussion focused on structural measures needed to restore private-sector confidence.

Foreign investors seek ‘super tax’ abolition

On tax rationalisation, the delegation highlighted that the current structure places a disproportionate burden on compliant, documented enterprises. The continuation of the super tax across income, dividends and capital gains, along with extensive advance and withholding tax regimes, has elevated effective corporate taxation at a time when Pakistan requires export expansion and industrial scaling.

Dr Zeelaf called for the abolition of the super tax in all its forms, a phased reduction of the corporate tax rate to 25 per cent, and the rationalisation of advance and withholding tax regimes that act as de facto minimum taxes.

OICCI President Yousaf Hussain emphasised that the priority now is to transition from stabilisation to a phased yet sustained export-led growth path. Translating macroeconomic stability into higher productivity, employment, and investment requires a shift from fragmented measures to a centrally coordinated medium-term reform programme under a comprehensive National Economic Plan.

Such a plan should integrate fiscal, trade, industrial, energy, and human capital policies with clear milestones, transparent monitoring, and deeper coordination between the federation and provinces to achieve national economic priorities, he said.

OICCI Secretary General M. Abdul Aleem noted that Pakistan’s strong geo-economic positioning offers significant potential that must be unlocked through greater policy coherence, predictability, and investment-focused improvements to the regulatory framework.

Published in Dawn, March 1st, 2026



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