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NON-FICTION: PAKISTAN’S AID TRAP

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The Shady Economics of International Aid
By Dr Saeed Ahmed
Upriver Press
ISBN: 979-8-9906236-6-8
300pp.

The book under review, The Shady Economics of International Aid by Dr Saeed Ahmed, is broadly in the same genre as the famous 2004 bestseller by John Perkins, Economic Confessions of a Hitman, only on a broadly Pakistan-centric canvas.

Dr Ahmed, who is a former senior adviser to the International Monetary Fund and chief economist at the State Bank of Pakistan, makes the point that Pakistan’s economic travails — long periods of low growth, high poverty and vulnerability to shocks — persist despite Pakistan’s status as one of the foremost recipients of international aid. By ‘aid’, the author specifically refers to grants and concessional loans extended directly to governments, multilaterally or bilaterally. By that token, it excludes humanitarian or emergency external assistance.

Both bilateral and multilateral donors are large bureaucracies and are structured in a way that their policy and disbursement arms are separate from each other. As such, there is little or no accountability for disbursements. Amongst multi-laterals, accountability is diffused, while for bilaterals, there may be accountability at higher levels, but not much amongst their execution arms.

The book’s real contribution is that it zooms in on specific instances of abject failures in donor assistance in Pakistan. The author illustrates this through three disparate case studies that he is familiar with.

A book by a former chief economist at the State Bank of Pakistan critiques international aid and its deleterious impact on developing countries, but its real value lies in zooming in on specific instances of abject failures in donor assistance in Pakistan

Since the 1980s, the World Bank has executed 22 power sector projects worth US $4.2 billion, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has executed 145 projects worth US $10.32 billion. The results of this borrowing are clear: over three trillion rupees in circular debt, some of the highest per-unit electricity rates in the region, and large swathes of the country suffering backbreaking load shedding, leaving the country hugely indebted in the process.

The author correctly asserts that both these multilateral funders should “accept responsibility for the failure to make progress in their energy sector reforms.” And considering that they have worked in the sector for over four decades, they kept throwing good money after bad, learning nothing from past failures.

Similarly, the World Bank, the ADB and the British Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) have poured hundreds of millions of dollars to reform the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) with little to show for it. The broad contours of donor-funded tax reforms essentially entail enhancing the tax-GDP ratio through reducing tax evasion and avoidance, as well as making the system fairer by broadening the tax base and improving progressivity in the system. Not one of these goals has been achieved.

Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio has remained below double digits for the last two decades (in comparison, similarly placed countries to Pakistan have an average 18 percent tax-GDP ratio), nor is there any tangible evidence that efficiency or progressivity in the taxation system has improved.

The author extensively cites an array of studies that demonstrate that there is no relationship between the quantum of aid and long-term growth. More poignantly, he cites the most prominent growth stories of China and India, which did not rely on foreign aid, to make the point that countries that do not depend on foreign aid do well on the developmental front.

The author cites the much-heralded Tax Administration Reform Project (TARP), launched by the World Bank in 2005, as a case in point. At the end of the project, not only was Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio lower than what it was when the project began, but the rate of compliance in terms of filing of tax returns also decreased. This ‘abject failure’ of the programme was even acknowledged by the World Bank which, in characteristic understatement, termed it as “moderately unsatisfactory.” The World Bank again led a multi-donor programme in 2014 for tax reforms, which failed equally spectacularly as its predecessor.

The third case study is not about project failure but about donor manipulation through collusive behaviour. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) started working on a Financial Inclusion Initiative in the 1990s with the aim of broadening credit outreach to the underserved economic and geographical segments of the country.

According to the author, who worked at the SBP at that time, the initiative took off in earnest around 2008, in expanding the outreach of microfinance and other instruments of financial inclusion. Around then, the British Department For International Development (DFID) was engaged through a small grant of 50 million GBP for implementing the programme. The author claims that the local team at the SBP managed to complete the tasks without resorting to the available donor funding and invested those funds in treasury bills.

Some years down the road, the donors asked them to provide two million GBP to another international donor from the technical assistance fund. The staff, including the author, resisted this request for some time, but then had to relent under pressure.

As for Pakistan’s addiction to the IMF, much of the blame has to be borne by domestic policy makers. The IMF is the borrower of last resort for countries that are in an unsustainable balance-of-payments quagmire. As discussed often, Pakistan has made a habit of resorting to IMF funding rather than putting its house in order. The only criticism that can be directed towards the IMF is on the speed of adjustments that they require, and perhaps that their stabilisation prescriptions do not provide a pathway to a sustainable growth transition.

The book then zooms out to engage, albeit briefly, on the economics of foreign aid. Apart from stabilising an imbalanced foreign exchange situation, in which countries resort to IMF help, the basic economic premise on which foreign assistance is beneficial is that countries with low savings rates require investible capital to put them on a sustainable track for growth, structural change and poverty reduction.

The author extensively cites an array of studies that demonstrate that there is no relationship between the quantum of aid and long-term growth. More poignantly, he cites the most prominent growth stories of China and India, which did not rely on foreign aid, to make the point that countries that do not depend on foreign aid do well on the developmental front.

The book under review is a useful addition to critiques of international aid and its deleterious impact on developing countries. Its true value, however, lies in helping policy practitioners and social activists understand Pakistan’s conundrum of low growth, high indebtedness and persistent poverty.

The next step, of course, is to think and chart strategies to create appropriate forms of statecraft and societal compacts needed to shed our existing aid addiction.

The reviewer is an economist, researcher and consultant on social and economic policy at the Collective for Social Science Research and a member from Sindh on the 11th National Finance Commission

Published in Dawn, Books & Authors, February 15th, 2026



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NATURE: THE MYSTERY OF MIMICRY

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Camouflage and mimicry are among the oldest concepts in biology — taught in classrooms as elegant outcomes of natural selection. Animals that blend in avoid getting eaten. Over many generations, tiny random changes accumulate. Simple, neat, intuitive.

But the deeper scientists look, the more the real world looks less like a simple narrative and more like a puzzle with missing pieces.

Across the animal and plant kingdoms, there are creatures whose mimicry is so precise — down to texture, colour gradients, behavioural nuance and even spectral reflections invisible to the human eye — that the standard explanation strains at the seams. What mechanisms allow an insect or a plant with no brain, no eyes and no cognitive awareness of its surroundings to develop such astonishing resemblance?

Take, for example, walking stick and leaf insects. Some species do more than mimic the general outline of foliage; they reproduce irregular edges, asymmetries and colour variations indistinguishable from real leaves — even under close inspection. Predators that rely on pattern recognition walk right past them. The perception of texture and shading that these insects embody is typically associated with sensory and neural processing — yet they lack anything resembling a central nervous system capable of that.

From mantises matching UV patterns they cannot see to vines copying plastic leaves, nature’s most precise disguises challenge simple evolutionary explanations

Or consider moss-mimicking stick insects filmed in South American rainforests. These insects display not just green surfaces but irregular lichen-like roughness and mottling. Their bodies look like small patches of moss clinging to branches. The patterns of light and dark, the uneven ridges and indentations, and the behavioural postures enhance the illusion. All produced without eyes capable of seeing the moss they so closely resemble.

A leaf insect (Phylliidae), exhibiting remarkable leaf mimicry through body shape and surface sculpting — Photos courtesy the writer
A leaf insect (Phylliidae), exhibiting remarkable leaf mimicry through body shape and surface sculpting — Photos courtesy the writer

Then there are the orchid mantises, a case that explicitly challenges assumptions about sensory requirements for mimicry. These insects mimic flowers not only in shape and colour but in ultraviolet reflectance — a visual band invisible to humans. Many of the insects they deceive (bees, flies) see this ultraviolet spectrum. But the mantises themselves cannot see ultraviolet patterns. Despite this, their bodies evolve ultraviolet reflectance that matches real flowers so closely that pollinators land on them routinely, mistaking insect for nectar source.

A plant example intensifies the puzzle. In South America, the vine Boquila trifoliolata can grow leaves that mimic the shape, size, colour and venation of nearby host leaves — even when those hosts are artificial plastic cutouts. This suggests that the vine responds to local cues in its immediate environment with astonishing specificity. Whether the cues are chemical, light-based or something else entirely, the mechanism remains unclear. What doesn’t appear to be required is any form of vision or cognition — yet the results are near-perfect mimicry.

An insect whose body texture and colour closely resemble moss — an example of extreme camouflage
An insect whose body texture and colour closely resemble moss — an example of extreme camouflage

Finally, some caterpillars display mimicry so dynamic that it becomes behavioural rather than purely morphological. Certain tropical caterpillars, when threatened, inflate their bodies and rear up in a way that makes them appear strikingly like a small snake. The patterning, the posture, the timing of the display all combine to trigger hesitation in predators that hunt visually. This behaviour — which requires striking precision of posture and display — occurs in organisms with only rudimentary nervous systems.

Orchid mantis (Hymenopus coronatus) mimicking floral structure and spectral cues
Orchid mantis (Hymenopus coronatus) mimicking floral structure and spectral cues

What unites these examples is not just mimicry but extreme mimicry: cases where resemblance is fine-grained, context-sensitive and effective against the perceptual systems of other organisms. These are not simple cases of “same colour = hidden”; these are examples where texture, shape irregularity, spectral signatures and behavioural display all converge to create illusions that fool highly tuned biological sensors.

Leaves of Boquila trifoliolata showing variation and mimicry of nearby host plant leaves.
Leaves of Boquila trifoliolata showing variation and mimicry of nearby host plant leaves.

Standard evolutionary theory explains the existence of mimicry — that similar forms can be favoured by selection when they confer survival advantage. But in many of these cases, the path from “random change” to “highly specific resemblance” is not clearly documented. Intermediate stages would not function, or would function poorly. Many of these mimetic features appear as if they encode information about the environment that the organism itself cannot perceive.

The accumulating evidence prompts more questions than answers:

• How do organisms without visual systems produce mimicry tailored to visual systems they do not possess?

• What sensory or molecular mechanisms allow plants to adjust leaf morphology to match local neighbours — including artificial proxies?

• Are our explanations too focused on selection after the fact and not enough on how complex phenotypes originate in the first place?

These questions are not a repudiation of evolutionary biology — they are an invitation to expand it. The natural world continues to defy simple explanations, revealing depths of complexity that resist tidy summary.

By confronting these puzzles with honesty, scientists expand both theory and wonder.

The writer is a banker based in Lahore. X:  @suhaibayaz

Published in Dawn, EOS, February 15th, 2026



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CRICKET: REBALANCING CRICKET

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It was never going to be easy for the International Cricket Council (ICC) to sideline Pakistan from the T20 World Cup, let alone exclude them from the marquee clash against India. That is precisely why, today on February 15, Pakistan will take on India for the ninth time in T20 World Cup history.

It is a rivalry in which Pakistan has managed only one victory so far. Yet win numbers barely matter when these two teams meet, because this contest has grown far beyond cricket and has become arguably the most anticipated fixture in global sport.

In the build-up to this match, uncertainty loomed large. Until just days before the game, there was no official confirmation that Pakistan would play. This followed a dramatic political intervention when the Government of Pakistan announced that it would not permit the Pakistan team to participate in the World Cup group-stage match against India. Despite the tournament featuring 20 teams, this single lucrative fixture dominated headlines across the cricketing world.

The tension had been sparked when Bangladesh approached the ICC, requesting that their World Cup matches be shifted out of India due to political and security concerns. The ICC rejected this request, citing operational challenges, and eventually removed Bangladesh from the tournament, replacing them with Scotland. This decision sent shockwaves through the cricket community and raised serious questions about fairness and consistency in governance.

The most anticipated match in the ongoing T20 World Cup, Pakistan versus India today, almost didn’t happen. But the issue was always about more than a single match. It was about respect, equity and the balance of power in international cricket

At that moment, Pakistan emerged as the only major cricketing nation willing to stand publicly in solidarity with Bangladesh. Pakistan’s position was rooted in recent precedent.

In the 2025 Champions Trophy, India refused to travel to Pakistan and the ICC allowed their matches to be played at a neutral venue in the UAE. Similarly, in the 2026 T20 World Cup, Pakistan was already playing all its matches in Sri Lanka rather than India. Given this background, many believed that Bangladesh deserved the same consideration rather than outright exclusion.

The Pakistan government took a firm stance and instructed the national team not to play India unless the issue was addressed. This moment marked a rare instance of a powerful cricket board openly challenging both the ICC and the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI).

On Sky Sports, former England captain and respected commentator Nasser Hussain weighed in on the controversy. He remarked that it was difficult to imagine the ICC treating India the same way if they had refused to play in a host country at short notice. He further stated that Pakistan was speaking to the ICC and BCCI in the only language that truly moves world cricket, financial leverage and commercial reality.

Hussain also expressed admiration for both Bangladesh and Pakistan, praising Bangladesh for taking a principled stand and Pakistan for defending another full member of the ICC.

The situation reached a turning point on Sunday, February 8, when the Bangladesh Cricket Board (BCB) president and the ICC deputy chairman travelled to Pakistan for high-level talks with Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) chairman Mohsin Naqvi. These discussions proved crucial and, by Monday evening, a resolution began to take shape.

Following the meeting, the BCB formally requested Pakistan to proceed with the match against India on February 15. Shortly after, the ICC issued a detailed press release outlining key assurances, including recognition of Bangladesh as a valued full member with a proud cricketing heritage, confirmation that their absence from the 2026 World Cup would not harm their long-term cricketing future and a commitment to continue supporting cricket development in Bangladesh, a nation of over 200 million passionate fans.

Most importantly, the ICC confirmed that no financial, sporting or administrative penalties would be imposed on Bangladesh. The BCB also retained the right to approach the ICC Dispute Resolution Committee if it chose to do so. Additionally, Bangladesh was guaranteed hosting rights for an ICC event between 2028 and 2031, ahead of the 2031 Men’s Cricket World Cup, subject to standard procedures.

Following this resolution, the Government of Pakistan officially announced on social media platform X that Pakistan would indeed play India today. This marked a historic moment in cricket diplomacy, where one board stood up for another in the name of fairness and equality among ICC members.

Despite this positive outcome, a misleading narrative began circulating in the Indian media. Several outlets portrayed Pakistan as backing down or surrendering under pressure. This interpretation was far from the truth.

The reality is that India versus Pakistan matches in ICC tournaments generate immense global viewership and revenue. Broadcasters, sponsors, the ICC, BCCI and PCB all benefit significantly from this rivalry. Even during periods of intense public hostility, such as the 2025 Asia Cup, India ultimately played Pakistan despite political tensions at home. At that time, Indian players refused to shake hands as a symbolic gesture, yet they still participated because a full boycott was simply not commercially viable.

What made this situation different was that Pakistan became the first team to openly risk financial losses and potential ICC sanctions by threatening to withdraw from the biggest match in world cricket. This was not a retreat but a calculated stand based on principles.

At the same time, the ICC was never in a position to simply remove or punish Pakistan the way it did with Bangladesh, even though this was exactly what many in India, particularly sections of Indian media and officials close to the BCCI, were hoping for.

Kicking Pakistan out of a global event was never going to be straightforward, because Pakistan is one half of the biggest rivalry in world cricket, a rivalry that generates enormous revenue, viewership, sponsorship and broadcast value for every ICC tournament.

The India versus Pakistan contest is not just another match, it is one of the most commercially powerful fixtures in international sport and the entire financial model of ICC events benefits heavily from its existence. Broadcasters pay premium rights fees largely because of this match-up. Sponsors invest more when these two teams meet. And host countries rely on this game to maximise ticket sales and global engagement.

Because of this, the ICC had to handle Pakistan’s stance with far greater caution and diplomacy than it did with Bangladesh, as any harsh action against Pakistan would have directly damaged the tournament’s commercial appeal and credibility. Unlike Bangladesh, Pakistan sits at the centre of the most profitable rivalry in cricket.

In truth, all three parties, Pakistan, India and the ICC, ultimately wanted this match to go ahead. However, Pakistan ensured that the ICC and BCCI acknowledged the need for fair treatment of all member nations rather than selective enforcement based on power or politics.

In the end, this episode became a win-win situation. Bangladesh secured a future ICC hosting opportunity without any penalties, while Pakistan demonstrated leadership, solidarity and moral courage. More importantly, Pakistan proved that it is not merely a participant in world cricket but a nation willing to challenge the system when fairness is at stake.

This was not just about a single match. It was about respect, equity and the balance of power in international cricket. And on that front, Pakistan emerged with its reputation not only intact but strengthened.

The writer is a cricket correspondent and
digital content creator. X: @abubakartarar

Published in Dawn, EOS, February 15th, 2026



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HEALTH: THE FIGHT AGAINST CHILDHOOD CANCER

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Ashfaq with his father and sister at his home in Ghotki in January 2026 | Photo courtesy the writer
Ashfaq with his father and sister at his home in Ghotki in January 2026 | Photo courtesy the writer

Ten-year-old Ashfaq lives in a bustling household of ten siblings in Sindh’s Ghotki district, some 540 kilometres north of Karachi. Two and a half years ago, when he was just eight, Ashfaq’s world had narrowed to the confines of a bed, his body ravaged by a mysterious, relentless illness.

A second-grade student at that time, Ashfaq arrived at the National Institute of Child Health (NICH) in Karachi in June 2023, cradled by his father and his 25-year-old sister. He was febrile and gasping for air, his skin ghost-white from severe anaemia. Most heartbreaking for the family was Ashfaq’s inability to walk; the very bones that should have carried him through childhood were now sources of agonising pain.

Ashfaq was brought to the paediatric oncology department, run by the medical charity Child Aid Association under the public-private partnership model. As the head of paediatric oncology, I examined Ashfaq and the grim reality became clear: he had been suffering in silence for 10 long weeks and the signs were pointing towards a childhood cancer illness.

Every year, 8,000 Pakistani children are diagnosed with cancer. Less than half receive proper treatment. While childhood cancer survival rates exceed 80 percent in wealthy nations, they plummet below 30 percent in Pakistan. On International Childhood Cancer Day, a doctor reveals how a historic pledge could lead to hope for families across the nation…

ONE CHILD AMONG THOUSANDS

Ashfaq’s story, though tragic, is not unique. It is the hauntingly familiar narrative of countless children who arrive at our centre, their young lives pushed to the brink by delayed diagnosis and systemic hardship.

Childhood cancer, a devastating health concern, affects approximately 400,000 children each year globally, according to World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates issued in February 2025. While survival rates in high-income countries exceed 80 percent, they plummet to under 30 percent in low- and middle-income regions, the WHO notes.

According to non-profit Pakistan Society of Paediatric Oncology (PSPO), around 10,000 children are diagnosed with cancer annually in Pakistan. But less than half receive proper diagnosis and treatment, because of the limited number of paediatric oncology centres and cancer registries. Currently, there are eight paediatric oncology departments across Pakistan. Two cancer registries exist — one in Karachi and the other in Lahore — but both track adult and child patients together.

In October 2025, PSPO launched a national paediatric cancer registration programme, involving multiple hospitals across Pakistan. It aims to maintain accurate and comprehensive records, in order to improve diagnosis, treatment and survival rates for children battling cancer.

Among the most common types of childhood cancers, leukaemia leads with nearly 30 percent of cases. Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), a specific, aggressive type of blood cancer, has a high cure rate with contemporary treatments — as high as 80 percent among children, according to the US National Library of Health — yet access remains a challenge. 

THE JOURNEY TO SURVIVAL

Following Ashfaq’s arrival at the NICH in 2023, my team quickly worked to diagnose and stabilise him, running blood tests and imaging studies, providing blood transfusions and medications over the next few hours. The results, confirmed the next day by a bone marrow test, revealed a diagnosis of ALL. The family was completely shocked, as they had never imagined a child could have cancer.

Following many hours of counselling, my oncology social workers and I worked to convince the family to arrange accommodation in Karachi. This was crucial because the child needed a long course of chemotherapy and, being immunocompromised, would not have been able to travel back and forth from home.

Ashfaq’s family initially refused, having already depleted their savings on the journey to Karachi. After two or three more sessions, we managed to convince the father — a farmhand — to give the child a fighting chance. I also emphasised that the disease has a good chance of a cure, provided the child receives the complete, necessary sessions of chemotherapy. The family ultimately agreed to stay and begin treatment for their child, full of hope for recovery.

FROM BEDRIDDEN TO THE PLAYGROUND

Today, on International Childhood Cancer Day, Ashfaq’s story represents both tragedy and triumph. After completing his rigorous chemotherapy regimen, he is now in remission — a joyous outcome for his family and our medical team. He returned home to Ghotki, joyfully reuniting with his family

Life began to resume its normal rhythm as he eagerly went back to his studies, embracing the future with renewed vigour. The family was grateful to the medical team for their care and the hospital for providing the child’s complete treatment free of cost, transforming a time of hardship into one of celebration and relief.

Without financial support, the same treatment would have cost at least Rs1 million over the course of treatment — a sum beyond what the family could afford. Given this financial barrier, his recovery demonstrates the power of comprehensive care and community support.

But Ashfaq’s access to such care is the exception, not the rule.

CLOSING THE GAP

Unfortunately, paediatric cancer treatment outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) significantly lag behind those in high-income countries. One reason for this disparity is accessibility to cancer care services for children with cancer.

Another major reason is high treatment abandonment rates — failure to start or complete curative-intent therapy after a cancer diagnosis. Broadly, lack of financial resources, medical facilities, and social support services contribute to the poor outcome rates we see in LMICs. Each of these barriers to treatment intersects and exacerbates the others.

In July 2025, Pakistan became the second country in the WHO-designated Eastern Mediterranean Region to join the Global Platform for Access to Childhood Cancer Medicines, co-founded by WHO and St Jude’s Children Research Hospital in Tennessee, USA. The platform aims to address the lack of treatment affecting at least 50 percent of paediatric patients and to increase their survival rate from 30 percent to 60 percent by 2030.

This is made possible thanks to the pledge of the government of Pakistan, the professional commitment of the Pakistan Society of Paediatric Oncology and the dedication of national stakeholders to standardise childhood cancer care and establish training and build research infrastructure in the country, thereby tackling low survival rates due to access issues.

Today, Ashfaq runs and plays with his siblings in Ghotki — a simple joy that seemed impossible when he arrived at our doors unable to walk. But for every child like him who makes it home, there are countless others who never reach us at all.

The question isn’t whether we can save these children. We know we can. The question is whether we will reach them in time.

The writer is head of the paediatric oncology department at NICH, Karachi, and chief oncologist of the medical charity Child Aid Association

Published in Dawn, EOS, February 15th, 2026



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