Rising memory chip prices are expected to significantly reduce global smartphone shipments in 2026 and raise prices, according to the latest forecast from TrendForce.

The research firm projects a 10% decline in worldwide smartphone shipments this year, resulting in total shipments of approximately 1.135 billion units.

Bear-Case Scenario

TrendForce also outlined a more severe “bear-case scenario,” under which shipments could fall by as much as 15%. In that case, global smartphone shipments would reach approximately 1.061 billion units for the year.

By comparison, 2025 concluded with modest growth. Shipments rose by 2% year over year, reaching between 1.24 billion and 1.26 billion units.

Regardless of the final shipment figure, TrendForce expects average smartphone selling prices in 2026 to increase.

The firm noted that memory components historically accounted for 10% to 15% of a smartphone’s bill of materials. That share has now climbed to an estimated 30% to 40%, reflecting surging memory prices. The higher cost burden is expected to reduce production volumes for some manufacturers.

Budget Phones May Suffer More

The effects of rising memory costs are expected to differ among smartphone brands. Samsung may be better positioned due to its vertical integration and role as a major supplier of memory. Apple could also be relatively insulated, as its customer base has historically shown greater tolerance for price increases.

In contrast, many Chinese smartphone manufacturers may face greater pressure. Brands such as Xiaomi, which rely heavily on entry-level devices and price-sensitive consumers, are considered more vulnerable to cost volatility.