Business
The technocratic illusion
While the old global order will take time to remould, echoes of fresh ideas grounded in the latest research by academic social scientists are reverberating across the international political, economic and social landscape, with the potential to shape a bright future for overlooked and distressed citizens.
To quote eminent US economist William Easterly, the new research shows that, “When the rights of the local people are respected, new trade happens, new technologies happen, and new public services happen.”
Entrepreneurs and innovators do not merely add to what exists; they destroy what is obsolete to make way for what is productive, says Karachi-based analyst Haroon Rashid Siddiqui. We need a new social contract and one that is indigenous and civil-society-inspired, says senior journalist Ishtiaq Ali Mehkri.
On Jan 26, the Monetary Policy Committee said economic activity continues to gain momentum faster than anticipated, mainly led by domestic-oriented sectors, owing — among other factors — to a stronger-than-expected pick-up in domestic demand.
Pakistan’s path to productivity and prosperity lies in renewing democratic institutions, empowering citizens, and rebuilding a just social contract
Arbitrary decision-making without principles and the violation of social justice make institutions dysfunctional, leading to overlapping functions. The institutions have to be redesigned as part of a sound long-term strategy under an enlightened vision to build a common interest state.
A noticeable positive trend is that technocracy, which ignored the unchecked power of the state against poor people without rights, is now divided between those advocating a democratic, egalitarian system and those advocating authoritarian rule. Mr Easterly notes that, “The rebels [economists] against the technocratic consensus come from both the left and the right, and they often hold incompatible views on almost everything else.”
PPP Sindh’s President Nisar Ahmed Khuhro recently refuted speculations about a technocratic government being under deliberation at any level. Asserting that no such conspiracy will be allowed to succeed, he added that there is no room for technocrats’ rule in the Constitution.
In a related development, on Jan 16, the Sindh and federal governments agreed to improve coordination to protect workers’ rights and accelerate labour-welfare reforms, including the planned transfer of the Employees Old Age Benefits institution and the Workers Welfare Fund to provincial control.
The technocratic illusion is that poverty results from a shortage of experts, while poverty is, in fact, about a shortage of rights. This emphasis makes the problems of rights worse, wrote Mr Easterly in his book, ‘The Tyranny of Experts — Economists, Dictators and The Forgotten Rights of the Poor’. In it, he explains that the cause of poverty is the absence of political and economic rights, and of a free political and economic system that would address the poor’s problems.
That in Pakistan both the National Assembly and the Senate now have opposition leaders, analysts at Dawn note, that the missing pillars of parliament have thus been restored, for which, they added, both the government and the opposition parties deserve commendation.
In his maiden speech, the opposition leader in the National Assembly, Mahmood Khan Achakzai, urged lawmakers from all political parties to “reclaim” control of Parliament as the genuine centre of power, emphasising the need to promote public welfare over prioritising partisan disputes. “Let democracy flourish, and let us pledge to perform our duties within the ambit of constitutional boundaries.”
It is worth noting how tragic events like the Gul Plaza fire have created dissensions within the coalition government, particularly between the PPP and MQM, on the deteriorating conditions of Karachi. What is really encouraging is that civil society — schools, businesses, online platforms and communities have come up with offers to help the affected people of Gul Plaza in different ways.
In its 2024 report, even the Asian Development Bank had noted, “The devolution of funds of functionaries to the city has been poor.” Instead of dragging each other through the mud, the analysts stress that PPP, MQM and other parties interested in Karachi’s welfare must reform the local bodies law so that the city can become a more livable place.
Earlier, the National Assembly had echoed with calls for empowering local governments as lawmakers, including Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, who stressed the need for local government reforms.
Mr Achakzai also emphasised the need for ethical conduct in public office, drawing on religious and constitutional principles to advocate for a more accountable and transparent parliament. Shifting to “non-ideological evidence-based policies” does not resolve moral choice, says Mr Easterly. To add, the prevailing problematic ideological and religious orthodoxy needs to be countered.
Instead of making parliament more transparent and accountable, the National Assembly passed a bill on Jan 21 for the secrecy of lawmakers’ assets, as critics say, to shield parliamentarians from accountability. And the lawmakers will lose and not gain public trust.
So, for the near future, we will continue to pursue an odd mix: pretending to implement neoliberalism but actually pursuing crony capitalism, says political economist Dr Niaz Murtaza. Meanwhile, the chances of salvation for the masses will remain distant until democracy and civilian sway prevail.
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, February 2nd, 2026
Business
Annual consumer price index rose 5.8pc year-on-year in January
Consumer price inflation rose 5.8 per cent year-on-year in January, official data showed on Monday, underscoring the central bank’s warning that price pressures could temporarily breach its target band as economic activity picks up.
The reading comes a week after the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) held its policy rate at 10.50pc, saying inflation could exceed its 5pc to 7pc medium-term target range for a few months this year, even as growth gains momentum and imports push the trade deficit wider.
The reading from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PSB) compared with 5.6pc in December, when prices fell on a monthly basis due to lower perishable food costs.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 0.4pc in January.
The SBP said it viewed the real policy rate as sufficiently positive to stabilise inflation over the medium term, even as it flagged stronger domestic demand and external pressures as upside risks to prices.
The finance ministry had projected inflation would remain within a 5pc to 6pc range in January.
An International Monetary Fund staff report has cautioned against premature monetary easing under the $7 billion loan programme, urging policymakers to remain data-dependent to anchor inflation expectations and rebuild external buffers.
Business
Annual consumer price rose 5.8pc year-on-year in January
Consumer price inflation rose 5.8 per cent year-on-year in January, official data showed on Monday, underscoring the central bank’s warning that price pressures could temporarily breach its target band as economic activity picks up.
The reading comes a week after the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) held its policy rate at 10.50pc, saying inflation could exceed its 5pc to 7pc medium-term target range for a few months this year, even as growth gains momentum and imports push the trade deficit wider.
The reading from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PSB) compared with 5.6pc in December, when prices fell on a monthly basis due to lower perishable food costs.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 0.4pc in January.
The SBP said it viewed the real policy rate as sufficiently positive to stabilise inflation over the medium term, even as it flagged stronger domestic demand and external pressures as upside risks to prices.
The finance ministry had projected inflation would remain within a 5pc to 6pc range in January.
An International Monetary Fund staff report has cautioned against premature monetary easing under the $7 billion loan programme, urging policymakers to remain data-dependent to anchor inflation expectations and rebuild external buffers.
Business
KSE-100 rebounds after early sell-off to close over 800 points up
Pakistan’s benchmark index, KSE-100, rebounded late afternoon on Monday after a dip in early intraday trading to close in the green, up 0.48 per cent from its last close.
The index closed at 185,057.83 points, an increase of 883.35 points from its previous close of 184,174.48 points. Trading volumes remained healthy at 215.8 million at a value of Rs28.594 billion.
The index had been down 0.18 per cent from its previous close of 184,174.48 points at 11:20am, to 183,840.03 points. However, by 3:00pm, KSE-100 had recovered to the 185,135 level, up 960 points (advancing 0.52pc) from last week’s close.
The early drop came on the heels of a particularly turbulent week for Pakistan’s equities market. The index lost over 6,000 points last Thursday after the State Bank of Pakistan kept interest rates unchanged.
The index had rebounded slightly to close in the green on Friday.
On Monday, the top active stocks were led by First National Equities Limited, with a volume of 191,182,675 at Rs1.65, followed by Hascol Petroleum Limited with a volume of 51,506,799 at Rs25.92, and K-Electric Limited with a volume of 38,314,192 at Rs7.11.
Earlier, Shoaib Memon, executive vice president of equities at AKD Securities, said the reaction of the central bank’s decision to maintain the key policy rate at 10.5pc should have a “short-term” negative reaction, and that even within US-Iran geopolitical tensions, “positive sentiment” would prevail.
According to a technical analysis from brokerage firm Arif Habib Limited, last week’s setup sets a “renewed attempt to break above the recently established resistance zone of 184,570-185,625 points”.
The firm also noted that a breakout “above this band would open the door for a test of the next major resistance area at 186,125-186,700 points”.
Additionally, “immediate support is seen between 183,700 and 182,200” and “a clear breach below this range would reinforce bearish pressure and could lead to further declines”.
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